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Eyes on the Next Weather Maker: Tuesday PM

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– Humid, w/ Scattered Showers & T-Storms Tuesday PM
– Potential Severe weather event Tuesday Late afternoon / evening
– Slight Risk (15% to 30%) of severe T-storm in Hudson Valley area
An absolutely gorgeous Sunday across the Hudson Valley. Low humidity, no smoke… lots of sunshine, and afternoon highs in the upper 70s. Now we look forward to the week ahead, and we have another upper-level trough digging in for Tuesday, and that appears poised to touch off scattered showers and T-Storms around the Hudson Valley and northeast. We’ll see a southerly flow out ahead of it Monday night into Tuesday. The front has cool & dry air behind it, and that should be enough to touch off a squall line of strong to severe storms late on Tuesday.
The details will become more clear as we get closer to the event. The timing looks like 4pm to 10pm on Tuesday, and at the moment we have a ‘Slight Risk’ (15% to 30% chance) of a severe T-Storm in the Hudson Valley. The primary risk would be for damaging wind gusts, but with this event over 48 hours away, updates will be very important to focusing in on the details with this event. For perspective on the intensity of this severe weather threat… at the moment, this severe threat does not look as intense as the Saturday severe T-Storm event we just experienced.
 
We’ll have to watch this closely over the next 48 hours to see if the severe threat rises. We’ll have updates as we get closer. For now, enjoy the beautiful weather.

Significant Rainfall Event Possible – Monday into Tuesday

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– Scattered showers developing late Sunday
– Localized pockets of torrential downpours possible
 
A very tricky forecast is shaping up for the Hudson Valley and Northeast over the next 72 hours. A weak stalled frontal boundary will interact with a weak low pressure system… and the result of the converging air could be some dramatic upward motion over portions of our area.
These type of events are notoriously challenging to forecast, because the dynamics at play could bring dramatically different results from one county to the next. We’ll obviously be watching closely and share updates as the event begins to unfold.
One of the concerns would be flash flooding… because if the scenario shown in the 3rd graphic unfolds, we could see several hours of heavy to torrential downpours over the same areas. With ground being so dry, the runoff could be too much to handle, and result in some localized rain totals Figuring out where those locations will be in advance is nearly impossible to forecast. So we should all expect periods of rain showers developing late Sunday… and continuing trough Monday. Some localized totals over 3″ can’t be ruled out

Cold Holds for Thursday… Weekend Preview…

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While a few locations in the Hudson Valley did record temperatures of 33° or 34° on Tuesday… Poughkeepsie (KPOU) station reached 32° on Tuesday and 31° on Wednesday. That means we are currently at 12 consecutive days with temperatures not getting above freezing! Based on the data we’re looking at… that streak will likely continue for another 5 or 6 days now.
 
Thursday we’ll see sunshine mixing with clouds. Morning temperatures will vary wildly based on location. Some of us will start off near 0°, while others may start the day in the teens. Afternoon highs should only climb into the mid and upper 20s around the Hudson Valley.
 
Friday looks very similar in terms of temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 20s are expected. But we’re going to be tracking an arctic front approaching Friday night into Saturday morning. That front will likely bring a period of light to moderate snow showers… and potentially a burst of heavy snow associated with a squall line as the front passes early Saturday. Snowfall amounts should be light… a dusting to 2 inches… possibly 3 inches in the Catskills.
However… the real story this weekend will be the cold air and strong winds. We’ll have a separate post on this, but an absolutely ugly weekend lies ahead for our area.
The 3rd image shows projected air temperatures at 1pm on Saturday. Depending on the speed of the frontal boundary…. air temperatures could be in the single digits to low teens during the middle of the day. But with winds gusting over 30mph… the wind chills Saturday afternoon and Saturday night are projected to be between 0° and 30° below zero! A potentially dangerous situation… so make sure you start planning accordingly for this weekend’s weather.

Saturday Weather Discussion : 1/3/26

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A very cold weekend underway across the Hudson Valley, with temperatures starting out in the teens on Saturday morning, climbing into the mid and upper 20s for afternoon highs. Clouds will increase during the day, and be with us until Sunday afternoon. A weak low passing by to our south, combined with a bit of energy in the Great Lakes may touch off a few snow flurries or snow showers Saturday night, but nothing more than a dusting is expected in a few spots.
 
Sunday looks very similar to Saturday… with clouds mixing with breaks of sun. Remaining cold… with highs in the upper 20s to near 30 once again. The cold will be with us into the start of the work week, with no storms on the horizon. At this point it’s looking like we can expect a warm up by mid week… with highs climbing into the 30s and eventually 40s by late week and next weekend. We’ll have more on that later this weekend.
 
Make sure to stay bundled up and warm while our 2026 starts out very cold. We hope you have great start to your weekend!

Blustery Start to the month of November…

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Fall is in the air around the Hudson Valley, as a series of upper level troughs will dive down from Canada over the next several days. This will bring us a few scattered showers on both Monday evening as well as Wednesday evening. Total rainfall each day should be less than a tenth of an inch… but you’ll want to be prepared for the possibility of a scattered rain shower (even an isolated rumble of thunder).
Rain Potential 
Monday evening the shower threat is mainly from around 4pm to 10pm, with the best chance in the Catskills and upper Hudson Valley. That’s where up to 0.10″ of rain could be seen. Then Wednesday evening… from sunset into the overnight hours, another batch of scattered showers could swing through the region. Best chance once again appears to be in the Catskills and upper Hudson Valley.
Wind Potential 
The wind will be the real weather impact across the region. Monday evening, gusts out of the WNW between 25mph and 35mph are possible in the higher elevations… and those blustery winds will continue on Tuesday with gusts between 25mph and 40mph possible. These winds likely won’t be quite as potent as our Halloween winds… but they definitely will be noticeable. Another round of strong wind gusts are possible Wednesday night into Thursday, with the passage of another cold front. Winds once again could gust upward of 30 to 40mph, both Wednesday night and again Thursday afternoon. We’ll update the details for Wednesday & Thursday again as we get closer.
 
A blustery week ahead for the Hudson Valley… with multiple cold fronts trying to bring chilly air to our area. Hold onto your hats, and stay warm everyone!

Halloween Weather Outlook

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Good evening everyone … Hope you are all doing very well
Upon some requests, we were asked if we could do our Halloween weather outlook for Friday, October 31st and here it is.
Weather models have been on and off and back on about the potential of rain on Halloween. The other day we saw the weather models had backed off with less chances of rain, latest weather models just now show chances are good again. Yes, we do very much need the rain, but on Halloween day when the ghosts and goblins are going door to door for their trick or treats?
Valley areas …
There’s a 59% chance of rain with estimated rainfall totals of 0.78” with temps around 54° Halloween night. The rains will be on the light side and scattered and on and off, nothing steady. Winds generally out of the north at around 11 mph. The combination of cold rains and light winds out of the north will make it feel cold, so, may have to wear something light to keep warm and maybe even repel the rain.
Higher terrain …
There’s a 59% chance of rain with estimated rainfall totals of 0.73” with temps around 47° Halloween night. The rains will be on the light side and scattered and on and off, nothing steady. Winds generally out of the north at around 12 mph. The combination of cold rains and light winds out of the north will make it feel cold, so, may have to wear something light to keep warm and maybe even repel the rain.
This forecast is 8 days out not including today, Friday to Friday. So, there will be many changes in the upcoming updated weather models. There could be a change to no rain, or maybe rain in the first half of the day .. time will tell.
Please check back for the latest weather updates
Hope everyone has a great evening
Be safe

Nor’easter Forecast Discussion : Saturday Evening Update

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This developing Nor’easter continues to be a challenging forecast, as we continue to get more and more data. The track and timing of the low pressure will determine where the strongest wind gusts are felt, and where the heaviest rainfall falls. Our latest ideas…

??Saturday Night : Cloudy with scattered showers and drizzle. Low in the low 50s.
??Sunday : Cloudy with scattered showers, and increasing drizzle during the late afternoon. High around 60°.
??Sunday Night : Cloudy with increasing periods of rain showers. Heaviest east of the Hudson River. Windy, with gusts 25 to 40mph. Temps in the upper 40s to low 50s.
??Monday: Breezy with rain showers… becoming scattered and tapering off during the afternoon. High in the mid 50s.

Futurecast Radar loop : Saturday Night – Monday Night


The confidence this storm will develop is strong. The uncertainty revolves around the steering winds for this storm, and the development of the nor’easter, and then the track that it takes. A large high pressure over New England moves off shore, and steers the coastal low pressure up the east coast. The closer this low pressure stays to the coast… or if it tracks inland… the heavier rain and stronger winds we would expect. If this storm tracks further to the east… then the heaviest rains and strongest wind gusts would also remain to the east of the Hudson Valley.

As of Saturday evening… it seems likely that the Hudson Valley sees a period of soaking rain late Sunday night into Monday, before tapering off later on Monday. Rainfall amounts between 0.50″ and 1.50″ appear likely… with the higher totals likely closer to the NY/CT border. Strongest wind gusts are likely to be overnight Sunday, gusting between 25 and 40mph… again, strongest gusts as you move closer to the coast. Minor shifts in the track of this storm could shift the expected impacts… so make sure to keep tabs on the developments as we get closer.

Tuesday Evening Update: Some Welcome Rain on the Way…

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This NYS radar loop runs from 6pm to 7:30pm, and the Hudson Valley is in the lower right quadrant of the radar.

The first few sprinkles are beginning to move into the Catskills at this hour… but otherwise, the Hudson Valley remains dry so far. These bands of scattered rain showers will continue pushing east/southeast over the next few hours… and should reach our area by around midnight. Make sure you plan for a rainy Wednesday morning commute, so allow a few extra minutes on the roadways… and make sure to send the kiddies have the rain gear and umbrellas at the bus stop tomorrow morning. Temps will tumble during the day, so get ready for fall temps as well!

Tonight’s Forecast:
Cloudy skies, breezy and mild… temps in the upper 60s and low 70s. Scattered showers developing by midnight… and becoming a steady light to moderate rain by morning.

Wednesday Forecast:
Periods of light to moderate rain showers, tapering off by late morning. Turning sharply colder and blustery. Remaining mostly cloudy. Temps in the mid 60s at sunrise… falling into the 50s during the day. Total rainfall between 0.50″ and 1.0″ expected.

Wednesday Night:
Partly cloudy and breezy… chilly. Lows in the mid to upper 30s. Wind chills in the low to mid 30s.

Thursday:
Partly cloudy and chilly. High in the upper 50s to near 60°.

Thursday Night:
Clear and very cold. Frost or freeze likely. Low in the low to mid 30s. Calm winds.

Friday Discussion: Cool Air Gives Way to Summer’s Return

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In the wake of Hurricane Erin’s brush with the eastern US, we’ll see warmth return to the eastern US Friday into Saturday. Before that happens, a very crisp… autumn like start to our Friday. Lows in the low 50s… with some patchy low 40s are expected.
?Friday…. we’ll see a return flow out of the SW as Erin pushes out to sea. The Hudson Valley will be sunny and warm… with lots of blue sky, and very few clouds. Highs in the low 80s are expected with low humidity… making for a comfortable day.
 
?Friday night…. will be mostly clear and comfortable once again… with lows in the mid to upper 50s.
 
?Saturday…. Mostly sunny with some fair weather clouds expected. Very warm, but with low humidity. High in the low to mid 80s. Real feel temperatures close to the air temperature.
 
As we look toward Sunday, another wave of energy approaches the eastern US, and could spread scattered rain showers in the Hudson Valley and northeast. While it doesn’t appear to be a large storm system… it does appear that Sunday will see a good deal of clouds, with scattered rain showers possible. This would be more welcome rainfall, on the heels of our storm system that brough a soaking rainfall to much of the valley on Wednesday.
The Hudson Valley saw a widespread one inch of rainfall… with some localized areas getting over 2 inches of rain, due to prolonged slow moving batches of rain showers. Just what we needed as dry conditions were once again expanding across the Hudson Valley.
 
Then as we look to next week… another Canadian air mass returns and brings more cool and crisp air to the Hudson Valley. We’ll have more on that over the weekend. TGIF Hudson Valley!

Monday Extremes – Repeat on Tuesday

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Day one of our extreme 1 – 2 punch is in the books across the region. Highs on Monday were in the mid 90s, and “real feel” Heat Index values climbed as high as 105° to 112° around the Hudson Valley. Very uncomfortable, very dangerous conditions.
Unfortunately we do it all again on Tuesday, with another day of hazy sunshine… extreme heat (highs in the mid 90s)… and oppressive humidity. Those factors will all combine together to bring us afternoon “real feel” apparent temperatures once again between 100° and 110°.
All the same rules apply… take it slow outside, take frequent breaks from direct sunlight, and stay hydrated… drink plenty of water and fluids with electrolytes. After an oppressive Tuesday… with afternoon highs & apparent temperatures that look just like these maps… we will see gradual (small) improvements beginning on Wednesday (highs near 90°, real feel mid 90s), and continuing on Thursday (highs in the 80s).
Hang in there Hudson Valley, Keep cool, and stay safe!

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