Showers have continued to be “nearby” over the last few weeks, with only one decent soaking as our dry autumn continues. This trend will repeat itself tomorrow as data continues to show what will appear to be a healthy line of shower moving west to east across the state fizzling out as it approaches the region tomorrow afternoon. Can’t rule out some showers making it into our western most zones between 2-4pm across parts of Delaware, Sullivan, Western Greene and Ulster, but these appear to be fading in coverage and dwindling in moisture on their approach. Here’s a glance at what that line of showers might look like on radar tomorrow around 4pm.
If you were hoping for another shot of rain before the week’s end, it also doesn’t appear that anything beneficial is on the horizon. A look at both the GFS and Euro total precipitation through Sunday evening tells the story of a mostly dry week ahead. Although you may notice a good bit of moisture across western NY state (we will get to that in a bit).
Once again aside from a few spots potentially seeing .10”-.20” of rain from some isolated passing showers we remain dry. As far as temperatures through this period, while it has started out a bit cool, temps also look to moderate through the remainder of the week. In fact, temps in the mid to even upper 70’s will make a return to the region, overall we will end the next 5 day period with temps averaging above normal. 
Above you will find temperature departure from normal with about 1-2 degrees above normal for this period. We can thank and area of high pressure to our south for driving warmer and drier weather into the region. Changes are afoot, models are sniffing in a powerful cold front approaching the region by next week. The GFS is much more aggressive with much colder air and its longevity with below normal temps diving into the region behind a cold front beyond Tuesday. The Euro is a bit more subdued with a shot of cold air but a fleeting and moderating shot with warmer air returning by end of next week. As we get closer to the end of the week we will have a better handle on how this may unfold and keep you all up to date. Here’s a look at the difference between the Euro and GFS on next week’s colder airmass. 
GFS with 6-10° below normal temps and Euro with about 1-3° is quite the difference, but at this timeframe we aren’t looking for the finer details, just the general idea that a cooler air mass looks to filter in beyond Monday, we will work the rest out in a few days.