After a couple gorgeous days, we’re going to see a strong southerly flow develop overnight, and that will usher in some warm and humid air to the Hudson Valley. Accordingly, the National Weather Service has our area in a “Slight Risk” of severe weather for Thursday.
– Wednesday Night… we’ll see clouds increase, and temperatures drop into the mid 60s. Humidity levels will increase, and scattered rain showers will develop after midnight. The best chance for steady rain showers will be in the Catskills and northern areas… but the entire region could see on and off rain showers extending into the morning commute on Thursday.
– Thursday… starts off cloudy, humid and damp, with scattered rain showers during the morning. Temperatures will climb into the 70s before noon with a persistent southerly flow.
The uncertainty in the forecast lies with what happens next. A cold front will approach the Hudson Valley between 12pm and 3pm. A strong southern flow ahead of it will bring warm and humid air into the region. The big question… will be how much sunshine we get in the late morning and early afternoon hours, prior to the arrival of the cold front. If we get enough sunshine, temperatures could jump into the mid 80s by early afternoon, and with the higher humidity, set the stage for a squall line of strong to severe T-Storms. Our region has a “Slight Risk” (roughly a 15% to 30% chance) of severe weather on Thursday. The primary concern is strong, potentially damaging wind gusts.
The situation requires close monitoring… because heat and humidity will be the fuel to any potential severe weather on Thursday. If clouds linger through the morning, air temperatures will be suppressed and the air mass could stabilize… reducing the potential for severe weather. So we’ll be watching closely and providing updates as Thursday morning progresses.
Have a nice evening and keep an eye out for updates between now & Thursday morning.