Happy New Year Hudson Valley! 2025 is going to start off very cold compared to averages. We’re watching the eastern half of the country develop an upper level trough, which should allow for some very cold air to settle into the eastern US.
The end result of this type of pattern is a very cold outbreak in the eastern half of the US. The persistent trough in the eastern US combined with the persistent ridge on the west coast, will result with a large area of well below average temperatures in the eastern US.
This kind of arctic invasion hasn’t been felt across the United States and more specifically the Hudson Valley, in several years. The arctic outbreak won’t have the punch of the pre-Christmas outbreak, but it will be much more persistent… lasting at least 2 weeks, and possibly longer.
Here’s a look at the 15 day loop of the 500mb (jet stream) pattern, and it shows you how this pattern over the eastern US locks in over 2 weeks
500mb Pattern (Jet Stream) Loop : January 1 – January 15th
The position of the trough base shifts west and east over the 2 week period… but you’ll notice how the deep blue colors over the eastern US remain for the entire loop. This is VERY unusual… at least in the past several years. To get a deep eastern trough flow through the pattern is common… but for it to remain without relief for such an extended time period is the uncommon part. Look at the resulting temperatures compared to average (anomaly).
US Temperatures Compared to Average: January 1 – January 15
The coldest temperatures compared to average focus in the Ohio Valley… but even in the Hudson Valley, temperatures are roughly 10 to 15 degrees below average from roughly January 7th through the 15th. This will result in high temperatures remaining below freezing almost every day between January 3rd and January 15th (at least).
Forecast High Temperatures: Tuesday January 7th
Temperatures are likely to get colder after this period… but the details will need to be ironed out as we go. Highs on January 7th are likely to be in the upper 20s, possibly colder. But once again… it will be very cold over the first half of January… but it may not be the “bone chilling” cold like we saw leading up to Christmas. The big story is the duration of the cold… lasting at least 2 straight weeks… and possibly longer.
Major Snowstorms on the way?
We’ll likely have a separate post on this issue… but we want to take a moment to address it here as well. You’ve likely heard several times by now… how… “there’s a major snowstorm on the way” ; or “a blizzard is going to hit the eastern US in early January”. But there’s a reason we’re leading with the cold, and not a snowstorm threat.
The reality is, that the pattern over the first 15 days of January is outstandingly favorable for an east coast winter storm. The mean ridge position over the Rockies, the deep eastern trough, the massive negative NAO, the deep 50/50 low… all set the stage for what should be a memorable nor’easter at some point in the first half of January. And from time to time… the models have shown that.
GFS Model (12z 12/31/24) : Jan 10 through Jan 12
The GFS just yesterday created a massive blizzard for New England, taking a low pressure out of the Gulf of Mexico, and running it up the east coast, and resulting in a 951mb bomb of a storm, that would drop well over a foot of snow in New England.
The trouble? … is that this comes and goes on the computer models. There’s nothing concrete here. Not in terms of timing, or impact, or track, or anything. Why is that? Probably because this evolving 500mb weather pattern is so dynamic and anomalous… that the computer models are struggling to get a handle on what will unfold. There are a lot of moving parts, and it’s causing wide ranges of solutions to appear on the computer data. There’s a potential of a light to moderate snow event on January 6th (Monday)… but what was once possible significant winter storm for the Great Lakes and Northeast… is now being completely suppressed to our south, impacting the Washington DC area, and weakening as it does.
So no… there is no impending major snowstorm on the horizon. However… that could change, and change quickly. So be prepared for possible forecast changes in the coming 2 weeks. This type of pattern is rare… and it would be very surprising if we escaped without at least one moderate/significant winter storm. We’ll be tracking this daily… check back for updates.