– 10pm to 2am : Light snow develops from west to east, may be scattered and of varying intensity
– 2am to 10am : Light snow continues although there may be some lull’s in the precipitation between 7am-10am
– 10am to 8pm : Moderate to Heavy snow… up to 1 to 3 inches per hour with a rumble of thunder possible
– 11pm to 4am : Snow begins to taper off from SW to NE
-Snowfall rates will be very impressive during the height of the storm, this will makes roads extremely treacherous if not impassible during the afternoon and into the overnight
-Winds gusting between 20-40mph will create reduced visibility and also lead to more tree and power issues
-Snow will be heavy and nature and will again lead to power grid issues
– Catskills (Zone 1&2) : 18 to 24 inches
– Hudson Valley (Zones 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8) : 12 to 18 inches
– Extreme Lower HV (Zone 9) : 6 to 12 inches (possibly less if more rain mixes in)
The only true wildcard that remains with this system is where the heaviest mesoscale banding will setup during the peak of the storm, for that reason we cannot pinpoint where the maximum axis of heavy snowfall will occur. With the said it is possible that we will see and swath of snow outside of the Catskills (Zone 1/2) that reaches 24″ wherever the most impressive bands set up. This will for some be the largest snowstorm of the season for some, and may also make a top 10 ranking for March snowstorms if it reaches it full potential. While this system lacks some attributes of the Friday snowstorm this system has a lot of punch and will be very impactful to our region.
Low Confidence: Mixing in extreme lower HV?
Only real concerns in terms of the forecast with this system are across the southern most parts of zone 9 where we need to monitor the potential that warmer temps or dry slotting may cut back on snowfall totals here, for that reason we have went with a bit lower and more conservative forecast for that zone. On the flip side a colder solution with dynamic cooling once again playing a part would also bring this zone into the 12-18″ forecast as well, this bears watching.
More to Come…
We’ll likely add to this post a bit more shortly, so you may want to check for more info soon. Otherwise, we’ll have additional posts in addition to this. But long story short, by the time early afternoon hits… this could be what our weather map looks like. A major nor’easter for the Hudson Valley for sure.