– 2am-5am : Snow begins from SW to NE
– 5am – 12pm – Heaviest snow (rates 1″ per hour possible)
– 2pm – 5pm – Snow tapers from west to east
– Precipitation Types- Mainly Snow, mixing with sleet possible near NYC
– Snow Consistency- Average, wet snow well south of I-84
– Wind Gusts- 20-35mph
– Periods of Heavy Snow … over 1″ to 2″ per hour possible,
– Blowing Snow may cause drifting & Treacherous Travel,
– Limited Visibility under 1/4 mile at times,
– Isolated Power Outages possible
Confidence– Moderate (Axis of heaviest snow will shift, and we will fine tune forecast)
– Northern Catskills: 3 to 8 inches
– Majority of the Hudson Valley : 6 to 12 inches (locally up to 14″ possible).
The majority of our thoughts on this system can be reviewed in the Preliminary Storm Forecast. The details will change, but the majority of our concerns and the basic setup are the same. The main issue from this point going forward will be banding of snow, and the exact position of the snow band.
The NW edge of this system has been creeping further south over the past 12 to 24 hours. This has also caused the snow/sleet line to drop further south as well. You can see much of the guidance right now keeps the sleet south of the Hudson Valley… even NYC is mostly snow under this solution. Our job over the next 24 hours, will be to monitor this trend, and see if we need to adjust our snowfall accumulations further.
We want to be abundantly clear… with this storm system, we will make modifications to the snowfall forecast if needed, because this forecast is being issued more than 24 hours prior to the start of the event, and there are a few factors that may cause the precipitation axis to shift a bit more. The infusion of colder air from Canada is beginning to show a suppression of the northern extent of snow with this system. Our belief is that this trend should not push much further… but we have to be prepared for the possibility that the trend continues. If it does… the axis of heaviest snow would shift south of I-84. Right now, we have forecast the region under a 6 to 12 inch band, and the heaviest snow appears to be through the Mid Hudson Valley at this time, but that could still shift on Monday.
Finally… this will be a fast mover. The storm likely lasts for only 8 to 10 hours in any location. The trade off, is that the precipitation (snow) may fall extremely heavy for a 4 to 6 hour period at rates up to 2 inches per hour. So conditions on Tuesday morning look very dangerous, and if you have plans, you may want to take that into consideration. We’ll have updates through the day on Monday…