Final Storm Forecast : Monday 3/23/20

Our storm system is on the way for Monday.  However, it’s now spring, so your location and elevation, will be a factor in how much snow you see in your area.

Timing:
– 6am to 10am:  Snow showers possible from SW to NE
– 10am to 1pm:  Steady snow develops from SW to NE
– 12pm to 6pm:  Snow falls moderate to heavy at times
– 3pm to 7pm:  Snow mixes/changes to rain from south to north
– 6pm to 10pm:  Rain/wet snow showers taper off from west to east

Impact:
– Mainly wet roads in the valley, temps generally 32° to 37°
– Snow accumulation mainly on unpaved surfaces
– Roads could become snow covered and slick during bursts of heavier snow
– Catskills and elevations over 1000 feet, best chance of snow covered roads
– Snowfall accumulations will increase with elevation
– Low elevations under 500 feet, will struggle to accumulate, may change over to rain at times

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills & Locations over 1500 feet (Zone 1,2) : 5 to 10 inches
– Southern Catskills, Shawangunks, Hurley Highlands, Taconics (Zone 4,5,6):  2 to 6 inches
– Hudson Valley (Zone 3,7,8) : Coating to 4 inches (mostly on unpaved surfaces)
– Extreme Lower Hudson Valley (Zone 9) : Coating to 2 inches (mostly on unpaved surfaces)

Commentary:
It’s not winter anymore, so with a higher sun angle, and warmer temperatures… the uncertainty on accumulations is rather high. Snow will develop during the morning, likely starting out as disorganized snow showers. But a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely during the early to mid afternoon. That’s when roads could become a bit slick, especially in the higher elevations.

But both the upper air and surface air is warmer this time of year. As a result, lower elevations will likely see a changeover to rain late in the day. Timing that changeover is a bit tricky. If a mix/changeover occurs around 2 or 3pm… accumulations will likely be closer to a coating to an inch. However, if the changeover holds off until after 6pm, accumulations could hit 4 or 5 inches of wet snow. We’ll have to see how things unfold.

The snow will be a heavy, wet snow… that sticks like paste to all unpaved surfaces. We don’t expect many issues with power outages, but we’ll have to monitor things. Temps generally above freezing should allow the snow to melt before too much accumulates on tree branches or powerlines.

We’ll have more commentary as we go… as winter tries to make a last stand. This is not a major event by any stretch… but in a winter devoid of wintry weather, we’ve got something to track. Have a nice evening!

19 thoughts on “Final Storm Forecast : Monday 3/23/20

  1. Thank you for this! And thanks so much for the zone listing. I’ve wondered just where Hurleyville fell in the markings. 🙂

    • The NWS forecast was perfect. Their maps accounted for elevation. You can make a decision on a a forecast that carries a published probability of 90% and a reasonable range of an inch or two. A forecast calling for a coating to 4” is useless but they will claim another perfect forecast in an effort for more clicks and followers.

      These non-professional hobbyists do a great job of reading the NWO AFDS and rewording them in an easy to read format for a geographical area that falls into a black hole between NYC, ALB and BGM. I hope they continue this. It’s a great service. But please leave the forecasting to the professionals.

      • Here’s a pro-tip, genius… if you don’t like the service, then why don’t you show yourself the door. You’re entitled to your opinion, and I’m entitled to mine. You have no idea what you’re talking about, and you’re embarrassing yourself.
        -Bill

    • Yeah, you too… do us a favor, and delete our web address from your browser, and your memory. We will all greatly miss your superior wit and intellect. Good Riddance
      -Bill

    • Thd range probably depends on the elevation of where you live. The higher up you are, the more snow you receive.

    • Dear Unsubscribe…. PLEASE DO. Feel free to never type our web address into your browser ever again. We won’t miss you… I promise.
      –Bill– … PS… Chester saw a coating of snow, and Kingston saw 3 to 4 inches.

  2. Happy with a forecast of a coating to 4″.
    Was hoping for more snow, but I’m glad to have realistic expectations. I won’t be surprised to see bare pavement and 4″ in some yards on my block.

  3. Thanks for the forecast and the new Zone Map Guide. Living in the Newburgh area it is sometimes difficult to tell which zone I am in as the lines many times go right over the area.

    • Thank you. this is a completely adequate forecast.

      As an essential infrastructure worker, who is not sitting at home making rude comments on a great website, i appreciate your hard work and what went into this.

      Also to the sad bored ungrateful commentors today: your mental health is showing. Take a break and be thankful we have a great resource like this.

  4. A coating to 4″? How about just saying no accumulation to 10′, so you can really cover yourselves 🙂 Either way, it is another bust of a snow event in the HV.

    • Yep… it’s called a late season snow event. Where temperatures are above freezing, and your exact elevation and location will mean the difference between a coating (like they saw in Chester), and nearly 4″ (like they saw in Kingston/Hurley).
      -Bill

  5. Thank you for the zone map. We have about 3 inches in zone 6 and most of it came down in the last 30 minutes. I don’t know why some people have to be rude and insulting to HV Weather, but they don’t have to be on your site. They could just stick their hand in the air and figure it out themselves 🙂

  6. Thank you for once again providing invaluable weather info to residents of the HV! We here in Zone 2 are in the midst of very heavy snowfall and have an accumulation so far of approximately 6”. We actually just requested to be plowed out in the morning.

  7. Thank you for great Spring forecasting- it’s MARCH! No point in picking apart the itty bitty details- We’re all in a holding pattern. Accept it and be glad Mother Nature threw us a curve ball to clean up after during a period of total boredom when we’re all stuck at home. Geez people… there’s always a silver lining…..

Leave a Comment