Final Storm Forecast : Saturday Night

Here we go again, Hudson Valley.  In the midst of an extremely mild pattern… we’re going to squeeze out a small snowstorm tonight.  An arctic cold front swept through the valley Friday, and temps are near or just below freezing for Saturday morning.  Providing just enough cold air, so that when a wave of low pressure rides along that arctic front tonight, it will be snow that falls across the region.

Timing
– 5pm to 8pm : Snow develops from SW to NE
– 9pm to 2am : Steadiest snow
– 3am to 6am : Snow tapers from west to east

Snowfall
– Northern Catskills & Northern HV (northern parts of zone 1, 2 & 3): 1 to 3 inches
– Vast Majority of Hudson Valley (zone 4, 5, 6, 7 and southern 1, 2, & 3): 3 to 6 inches
– Lower Hudson Valley (zone 8 & 9): 4 to 8 inches

Discussion:

This storm will bring a sneaky snow event in the midst of a mild pattern.  Just how much snow we see, depends on a combination of factors.  Most important is the position of the storm system, and the track it will subsequently take.  But also a factor are how strong the system can get… and how much moisture we can squeeze out of it.

So let’s walk through the expected progression of this storm…

It appears that the storm will begin to enter the lower Hudson Valley between 5pm and 8pm from SW to NE.  Temperatures at the onset should be 30° to 33°, and after a day of sunshine and above freezing temperatures… the snow may struggle to accumulate on roads initially.  But the fact that the sun will be down, and that temps should be at or below freezing… should allow snow to begin accumulating on roads after not too long.  So as the evening progresses, and the snow continues to fall, snow and ice covered roadways are likely.

As the evening progresses, the snow should continue to build over the region…

Looking at this futurecast… this looks like a good ol’ fashioned snow storm for the Hudson Valley.  The low pressure should exit east of Maryland and Delaware, and continue to move northeast.  The snow is likely to be falling at a fairly good clip at this point, with the steadiest and heaviest snow expected between 9pm and 2am.  Travel at this time will become increasingly difficult… due to snow covered roads and reduced visibility from steadily falling snow.  If you have plans after dark tonight, you really want to factor this in.

By around 3am… we’ll be seeing the snow begin to exit the region from west to east…

As the storm moves very close to the benchmark (40°N, 70°W)… it should begin to pull the snow shield east of the Hudson Valley.  Bringing an end to the snow across the region, and by the time the sun rises on Sunday… we’ll likely have a mix of clouds and sunshine, with temps in the mid to upper 20s.

This storm will be close to the benchmark… which traditionally means the heaviest snows will be in the lower Hudson Valley and closer to NYC.  Usually the ‘best’ snowstorms for the Hudson Valley track just inside of the benchmark, a bit closer to the coast.  As a result… here are some bullet points:

– In general, 3 to 6 inches of snow is likely for our region.

– As you go further NW, snow amounts are likely to be slightly lower, so those in the northern HV and Catskills may see slightly lower amounts of 1 to 3 inches.

– However… higher elevations will amplify the snowfall amounts, do to the added lift and colder temps that the mountains provide.  So the lower half of the Catskills could still see the 3 to 6 amounts, due to the benefit of elevation.

– As you go SE, south of I-84, and into zones 8 & 9… a lot more 4, 5, 6 and 7 inch amounts are possible, hence the slightly higher snowfall forecast there.

– There are always heavier snow bands that set up within these systems… if one sets up over the Hudson Valley, it could mean slightly higher totals.  The data is conflicted on this, so we’re siding with the consensus… which is 3 to 6 inches.

As always, this will turn into a now-casting event.  Meaning as the storm develops, and begins to unfold… we’ll have updated analysis and discussion.  We’ll look to all of our viewers on Facebook to provide observations and condition updates.  If we’re seeing signs that this storm could overachieve a bit… we will let you know.  In addition, if we see signs that the snow shield doesn’t quite come together as we expect… we’ll discuss that as well.

But as of now… the data is looking good… we’re not seeing any “scary” signals that could wreck the forecast.  Check with us on Facebook for updates, and if anything changes… we’ll let you know.

Thanks for your reading… and all your continued support!

9 thoughts on “Final Storm Forecast : Saturday Night

  1. Sigh…I should be excited for ANY snow, but when the lawn goes from green to white to back to green, it’s a disappointing rollercoaster. As a fair trade-off, Summer shouldn’t get to more than 60°. Tit for tat!

    • Hang in there buddy… look at it this way. It was 55° on Thursday and Friday. Tuesday it’s going to be 65° to 70°, and Wednesday it’ll be in the low 70s!! We’re about to break some records. In the midst of all that heat… it’s going to snow tonight. If I can find the time, I want to talk about how lucky snow lovers are. This could be a complete waste of 2 weeks in Feb… but instead, we still could pull down 4 or 5 inches of snow tonight. By rights it shouldn’t snow tonight… but we’re getting a gift 🙂

  2. How quickly will it stick to roads and other surfaces since it has been warm and the ground is not frozen? If temps stay above freezing for an extended period, it may not accumulate much. We shall see. But the bottom line is, we will be warmer then Las Vegas next week with spring like temps.

  3. Very detailed forecast! Thank you for all your input on this storm.

    Just LOVE this site! I am always directing people to HVW for weather information. Most accurate forecasts – never let down by your predictions.

    • Thanks so much cloverplank… it’s a labor of love, but we do spend countless hours pouring into the data, and then presenting it in an easy to digest format. It means a LOT to hear comments like yours, and Rick T… so glad we make a difference.

  4. Will it cool off after Wednesday? We need a few more weeks of more temperate winter weather – or the grape vines will push buds – freeze – and then no grapes to press into wine this fall!!! Now wouldn’t that be a problem!

  5. Appreciate all your detailed reporting for our area HVW! I’ve been wondering if you can find a way to make your prediction maps less confusing. The placement of numbers of the zones are confusing along with the number of inches but more importantly, I can’t tell what the meaning of one zone having two or three different color borders on it. Also I’m in Kingston and don’t see any inches prediction covering that section of map (zone 7?). Also what do the horizontal dotted lines mean? If there is a key someplace let me know, but honestly I think there should be an easier to understand diagram. The placement of numbers, info and color outlines are hard to figure out. Thanks for listening!

Leave a Comment