Final Storm Forecast : Tuesday 2/12/19 Snow & Ice

Alright… we’re going to increase snowfall amounts ever so slightly, but the majority of the forecast will remain the same…

Timing:
– 7am to 11am: Snow develops from SW to NE (8am to 10am for most)
– 1pm to 5pm: Snow mixes & changes to sleet from SW to NE
– 5pm to 10pm : Sleet mixes with freezing rain, especially south of I-84
– 8pm to 12am : Sleet changes to freezing rain, possibly rain near I-287
– 1am to 5am : Wintry mix tapers off

Impacts:
– Low visibility during burst of moderate snow, over 1″ per hour at times
– Snow covered and icy roadways, temps well below freezing
– Extended period of sleet expected, significant sleet pellet accumulation possible
– Icing of up to 1/4″ on top of snow and sleet possible
– Tuesday PM travel heavily impacted, likely to affect Wed AM commute

Accumulations:
– Catskills (Zone 1,2,5,6) : 5 to 9 inches of snow (with 1″+ of sleet & 0.1″ frz rain)
– Majority of HV (Zone 3,4,7,8): 2 to 6 inches of snow (up to 1″ of sleet & 0.2″ frz rain)
– Extreme Lower HV (Zone 9): 1 to 3 inches of snow (up to 1″ of sleet & 0.25″ frz rain)

Discussion:

After much deliberation Monday evening, we’ve decided to slightly raise snowfall totals.  The reason for this comes down to one piece of data.  The HRRR computer model, which is the most detailed, high resolution data we have, is suggesting that the mid level warm air is not as fast as the other data was suggesting.  Quite simply, it appears we may get an extra 1 to 2 hours of moderate snow in all areas.  So we basically added an inch or 2 to every range, just to cover the potential.  Here’s a visualization of the old data, versus the new data…

OLD DATA

NEW DATA

Notice that these maps are relatively similar in terms of the position of the snow/sleet line.  The difference is the new data has that position occurring 3 hours later than the old data.  However… the new data also starts the event an hour later… so the net difference is roughly an extra 1 to 2 hours of snow, before the change to sleet.  If we assume this is accurate, we slightly modify our snowfall forecast to account for the change.

But the extra inch or so of potential snow is not the real story here.  The reality is, that a moderate snowfall will be followed by an extended period of sleet that will end as a mix of sleet and freezing rain.  The majority of the Hudson Valley will remain under the freezing mark for the duration of the event… so if there is a change to plain rain, it’s likely just before sunrise on Wednesday.  Most of us… will see sleet change to freezing rain, before tapering off just before dawn on Wednesday.  This likely means that the Wednesday AM commute will be affected.  We’ll look closer at that on Tuesday.

However, for now… we’re seeing dozens and dozens of school closings for Tuesday.  It seems that most districts have opted for the cautious route, due to the anticipated start time between 7am and 11am.  A very treacherous travel day on Tuesday from late morning through the night.  Please use extra caution.  We’ll take you through the day both here, and on Facebook.  Thank you for the continued support!

15 thoughts on “Final Storm Forecast : Tuesday 2/12/19 Snow & Ice

  1. Awesome mapping and textual explanation, appreciate the clarity and detail provided. May it foster improved decision making and save lives that might otherwise have been at greater risk for lack of the information provided here. You are making a valuable difference.

  2. Thank you for your forecast. Now to get ready to go plow snow for the Town of Newburgh Highway. Everyone be safe out there.

  3. Hi, It seems you cannot find good weather reporting anymore except on this great website! Thank you so much! I live in Great Barrington MA and I still use your website for clarity and answers! Eileen

    • Sorry to hear that Eileen. But you could probably get away with using our Zone 4 forecast, based on your location. It might not be precise… but probably a fair portrayal. Hope you find someone you can trust in your area soon. 🙂

  4. Almost 1pm in Woodstock, NY. Maybe 2 inches of snow… if that. Very lightly still falling. It is supposed to stop any time now. So I don’t think we are going to get 5-9 inches…. do you?

    • Hey Raji, no… you’re probably finished with maybe 3 or 4 inches where you are. Likely right on the line of zone 3 and 6, and the truth is… if we could have changed 1 thing about this forecast… it would be the fact that we caved at the last minute and increased our Catskills forecast from our preliminary 3 to 7 inches…. to 5 to 9 inches. I’ll try to go into why we did that in the recap tonight. I don’t think anyone saw more than 7 inches from this storm… so the prelim forecast would have been rock solid.
      -Bill-

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