Good evening, Hudson Valley. The Thursday afternoon data and evening data is in, and we have no changes at all from our previous ideas and discussions. A quick recap:
– Rain showers continue into the night
– Rain changes to wet snow in Catskills between 2am and 5am
– Rain changes to wet snow north of I-84 between 4am and 8am
– Rain mixes/changes to wet snow south of I-84 between 5am and 9am
– Wet snow (mixed with rain) tapers off between 9am and 12pm
– Valley (below 800ft) – slushy coating to 1 inch on grass possible
– Hill towns (800ft – 1500ft) – slushy coating to 2″ possible on grass
– Catskills & elevations above 1500ft – 2 to 4 inches possible
Winter Storm Video Discussion : 11 minute forecast discussion posted on Facebook
It’s all going to come down to the temperatures. How cold does it get, and is it cold enough for the wet snow to accumulate. The coldest guidance has Poughkeepsie falling to 35°. In general, it looks like 33° to 37° will be where much of the valley bottoms out, and as such… a slushy coating to an inch on grass would be the best we would expect. As you go up in elevation, the story changes… where temps could reach 32°, and an inch or two is possible. The Catskills and areas above 1500 feet will stand the best chance for accumulating snow… 1 to 3… maybe 4 inches of snow are possible in the Catskills, and we could see some slick roads… so use extra caution if you’re travelling in the morning.
We’ll have updates in the morning, as we see if we can get some pre-Halloween snowflakes around the region. Have a good night Hudson Valley.