Friday Discussion : Here Comes Fay

As of 11am on Friday, Tropical Storm Fay has maximum sustained winds of 60mph, and it’s heading for the Hudson Valley…

The radar loop over the past hour or so paints a soggy picture for the Hudson Valley, as Tropical Storm Fay’s outer rain bands move into the lower Hudson Valley.

Radar Loop : 10am – 11:45am

Some soaking rainfall is on the way for the afternoon and evening hours, as Fay pushes NNE along the coastline this afternoon and evening.   Tropical Storm Fay has maximum winds of 60mph, but the real story for this system is the rainfall totals.  The gusty winds will be focused south and east of the Hudson Valley… although gusts over 20mph can’t be ruled out, the primary threat from this system will be for Flash Flooding due to locally heavy rainfall amounts.  As such, a “Flash Flood Watch” is issued for the entire region.  So here is how we anticipate the radar playing out over the next 18 hours…

Futurecast Radar : 12pm Fri – 8am Sat

Rainfall should begin between 12pm and 4pm from south to north.  Heaviest rainfall is projected between 2pm and 8pm in general, as the heaviest bands rotate into the Hudson Valley at that point.  As we move into Friday night, the center of rotation will move up the Hudson River valley, and that will push the widespread soaking rain north of the region, but scattered showers and downpours will rotate around on the back side of the system.  That will keep the threat for rain in place until Sunrise on Saturday.  As you see, the futurecast loop ends at 8am… and other than a spot shower in the region, the Hudson Valley is dried out by Saturday Morning.

One of the concerns we’ve heard is regarding the winds.  Any time you mention a Tropical Storm… strong (potentially damaging) winds are a concern.  The good news, is that will not be the case for Fay.  She’s a relatively weak system, and not well organized.  Here are the maximum projected wind gusts for the entire storm…

What IS a concern, however… will be flash flooding due to heavy rainfall.  Here’s a projection of the total rainfall from Tropical Storm Fay…

You can see that the Hudson Valley is projected to be the focal point for heaviest rain.  Considering the flash flooding that we saw in parts of the region the other day, another 1 to 3 inches… with locally up to 5 inches possible… flash flooding will be a very real concern around the region Friday afternoon and night.  If you’re in a flood prone area, or you saw flash flooding earlier this week… you’ll want to be on alert as the heavier rains push in today.

We’ll share updates as we go through the afternoon and evening.  Stay dry everyone!

 

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