Friday Discussion : Intense Heat Wave Discussion

After a deluge on Wednesday night that ended Thursday morning, we saw scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  We’ve been quite dry over the last 60 days, so this rainfall was very welcome.  Here’s the rainfall total ending Thursday morning, it doesn’t include the afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms…

But now we turn toward the weekend, and the impending heat wave that is barreling toward the Hudson Valley.  Things start off decent on Friday, with a hot summer day…

Temperatures are surely hot, but not oppressive.  More importantly… the humidity should remain in check on Friday.  So yes, it will be hot… but not oppressive.  Things warm further on Saturday, with high temperatures climbing into the 90s across the Hudson Valley.

Poughkeepsie is projected to reach 95° on this map… so our forecast is a general 90° to 95° across the region.  Once again, humidity levels will rise a touch… but not to oppressive levels.  So Saturday will be hot, but not terribly humid.  You’ll want to take it a bit slow on Saturday, as the heat will surely be on the rise.

Sunday is the day things get oppressive, and potentially dangerous.  We have some concern about ‘exactly’ how high the temperatures get, so we’ll show you the conservative and the aggressive high temperatures for Sunday.  First the European model’s slightly conservative projection…

The European model projects highs in the mid to upper 90s across the valley, with low 90s in the Catskills.  The American GFS model suggests that temperatures could surge even higher than this on Sunday…

Potentially widespread high temperatures between 98° and 103°!?  This would be incredible if it were to come true.  For this reason, we remain skeptical of what would be widespread record high temperatures.  However, with extreme heat like this… we can’t rule it out.

More problematic, are the ‘real feel’ heat index values projected by both the European and American models.

Even if the conservative estimate is correct, with the humidity factored in… it could feel like 100° to 110° on Sunday.  If the highs actually climb above 100°, with the humidity factored in… it could feel like 105° to 115°!!

These are DANGEROUS conditions, ladies and gentlemen.  Heat exhaustion and heat stroke can set in quickly, due to the high toll these conditions take on the human body.  It is imperative that we take extra precautions on Sunday and into Monday:

  • Take frequent breaks from strenuous activity
  • Drink plenty of fluids (water and electrolytes)
  • Avoid extended periods of exposure to the sun
  • Check on Seniors and Children as well as pets

These conditions are expected to last well into the work week, but beginning Sunday, and lasting into Monday and Tuesday… we could see high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100°, and heat index values between 100° and 115°!  Please begin to plan accordingly.  We will track the heat through the weekend and into the coming week.  Such intense and extended periods of heat will surely put a strain on our electrical grid.  We could experience brown outs as a result of electricity overuse.  Please try to conserve as much energy as you can.  We’ll likely share information from our partners at Central Hudson, as they begin to recommend action for us to take.

A busy week in the middle of summer for us.  Be sure to check back with us for information as we go through the weekend.  Be safe, and have a nice Friday!

Leave a Comment