Friday Discussion : Late Severe Threat

If it feels like it was only a week ago that we were talking about snow… well, it was.

But on this Friday, it’s not snow that we have to worry about… it’s severe weather.  We’ll outline the threat, and then give our thoughts.

This is what the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center thinks the threat looks like for Friday night.  A low pressure system will drag a cold front across the northeast.  The relatively warm and moist air in the Hudson Valley (highs likely in the low 80s), will set the stage for some strong to severe thunderstorms as the front approaches.  The severe threat with these storms will include:
– Damaging wind gusts over 50mph (up to 30% chance)
– Large Hail (<15% chance)
– Isolated Tornado (< 5% chance)

Timing of the front will be the key, because most of the storms will be fueled by the heat of the day.  So once the sun sets, the severe threat will gradually diminish.  Here’s a simulation of the front moving through.

HRRR Futurecast Simulation : 2pm to 2am

You can clearly see the line of storms packing a punch during the afternoon, but it weakens considerably by its arrival in the Hudson Valley.  This simulation has the storms reach the Catskills shortly after 8pm… and spread into the rest of the region between 8pm and 10pm.  Gusty winds, heavy downpours, and lightning are possible.

But if this scenario plays out… the Hudson Valley very likely will escape the worst.  Here is another scenario with a similar outcome….

This snapshot for 8pm has the line of storms even slower than the first simulation.  As of 8pm, the storms don’t even appear in the Hudson Valley (lower right of image).  This would be good news for the region, because while some thunderstorms and heavy downpours are possible… we would be spared any widespread severe threat.

With all of that said… in these situations, we always prepare for the worst… and hope for the best.  We’ll try to share updates as the day progresses on Friday.  But let’s take some good news out of this whole thing… Friday is going to be absolutely gorgeous… with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.  Hopefully some of you can get out and enjoy it!

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