Friday Discussion : May Chaos

A potential record breaking cold air mass on the way to the Hudson Valley… will set the stage for a potential snow event in the month of May.

The issue here, is that this is such an extreme event, that the computer guidance is all over the place on this setup.  The NAM model shown above is much warmer than what we saw just 24 hours ago.  The issue is that the boundary is projected to be further north, keeping milder air in the region, and slowing the progression of the arctic air into the Hudson Valley.  If this solution is correct, it’s a slushy coating on grass at most in the Hudson Valley.

However, the data is not in full agreement.  The GFS and European models both still suggest the colder solution… in addition, the most upgraded tool, the HRRR v4 is much colder than the HRRR v3.  It’s a difference of whether Poughkeepsie is closer to 48° at 9pm (like the HRRR v3 suggests) … or 34° at 9pm (per the HRRR v4).  That’s a whopping difference of 14° for the same tool, at the same hour… depending on whether you use the traditional HRRR, or the upgraded HRRR.

If the upgraded model is correct, a coating to 3 inches across much of the Hudson Valley is possible.  So we’ll have to see how things unfold Friday evening.  This is a very rare setup, a chance for accumulating snow in the Hudson Valley in May.  No matter what happens… expect Saturday’s weather to feel like the middle of winter.  Highs on Saturday only in the low 40s… but winds gusting over 35mph will make it feel like January!!

Updates as possible on Friday…

12 thoughts on “Friday Discussion : May Chaos

  1. Let’s get real people. A coating at best in Poughkeepsie. Model??? I’d much rather watch them on the runway. JAG.

  2. My son is blaming me for this weather. I put my heavy Carhart coat away. I think it is his fault because he put the snow blower away.

  3. Wow! Was going to take the snow tires off last weekend, but got involved in something else. Not that this is mega-snow or anything, but I could use all the help I can get on the roads.

  4. Hello, below is comment on what is Really the cause of our Unusual Weather for this time of year. You guys to a GREAT job of giving us the day by day status on the weather, but as I mentioned in a post about a week ago you don’t give us the “10,000 ft” reason on what is driving abnormal patterns caused by Jet Stream and Polar Vortex’s, etc … which I think is Key to understand vs day by day stats. See below :

    The northeastern U.S. is about to get a cold spring farewell from winter’s bad boy, the polar vortex, which could bring rare May snowfall and record-low temperatures to some areas over the Mother’s Day weekend, forecasters say.
    Usually the polar vortex is a batch of cold air that stays trapped in the Arctic all winter, but a couple times during the season, it wanders south and brings bone-chilling cold and snow to Canada and parts of the United States. This year the polar vortex stayed put, and the East had an unusually mild cold season.
    Around this time of year, the polar vortex breaks up, but this breakup is a bit different, said Judah Cohen, a winter storm expert for Atmospheric Environmental Research, a commercial firm outside Boston

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