A potential record breaking cold air mass on the way to the Hudson Valley… will set the stage for a potential snow event in the month of May.
The issue here, is that this is such an extreme event, that the computer guidance is all over the place on this setup. The NAM model shown above is much warmer than what we saw just 24 hours ago. The issue is that the boundary is projected to be further north, keeping milder air in the region, and slowing the progression of the arctic air into the Hudson Valley. If this solution is correct, it’s a slushy coating on grass at most in the Hudson Valley.
However, the data is not in full agreement. The GFS and European models both still suggest the colder solution… in addition, the most upgraded tool, the HRRR v4 is much colder than the HRRR v3. It’s a difference of whether Poughkeepsie is closer to 48° at 9pm (like the HRRR v3 suggests) … or 34° at 9pm (per the HRRR v4). That’s a whopping difference of 14° for the same tool, at the same hour… depending on whether you use the traditional HRRR, or the upgraded HRRR.
If the upgraded model is correct, a coating to 3 inches across much of the Hudson Valley is possible. So we’ll have to see how things unfold Friday evening. This is a very rare setup, a chance for accumulating snow in the Hudson Valley in May. No matter what happens… expect Saturday’s weather to feel like the middle of winter. Highs on Saturday only in the low 40s… but winds gusting over 35mph will make it feel like January!!
Updates as possible on Friday…