Friday Discussion: Upper Level Low Brings Burst of Snow

Our mid November storm has brought historic snowfall to the region already… and yet, we are eyeing even more snowfall impacting the region for the Friday AM commute!

The widespread 8 to 12 inch snowfall amounts being reported as of midnight Thursday night, are the highest widespread snowfall amounts on record… for a storm occurring on or before November 15th.  Sure… it can snow this time of year, but it doesn’t usually snow with such conviction.  Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour… for 3 hours… surpassing snowfall forecasts of 4 to 8 inches of snow… in just a few hours.  That’s what we mean, when we say ‘historic’.

But the upper level low will exit to our southeast on Friday morning, and generate some intense upward motion in the atmosphere.  This in turn causes the air to cool and condense… and suddenly we have heavily falling precipitation.  This will very likely change the sleet and freezing rain… back to all snow (and a heavy snow at that)… before ending.

Futurecast Radar: 10pm Thursday – 11am Friday

 

The line of snow that will rotate through the Hudson Valley between 6am and 9am on Friday, will fall at the rate of over 1 inch per hour.  Temperatures will be right near freezing…

These temperatures strongly suggest, that even though precipitation may have tapered off overnight… conditions have not improved much at all.  The lull in the action will allow road crews to catch up… but snow and ice will not melt, and conditions will be slick already… before an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow arrive…

So travel on Friday morning is certainly not looking favorable.  We’ll have to see how it unfolds… but a delay and cancellation filled Friday morning is likely in the cards.  The snow burst likely tapers off from west to east Friday morning between 8am and 11am… at which time, temperatures should climb above freezing… and conditions will gradually improve.

We will discuss later on Friday… why the storm exceeded our expectations in terms of snowfall accumulation.  For now, let’s focus on keeping people out of harms way for the AM commute.  Be safe, Hudson Valley!

4 thoughts on “Friday Discussion: Upper Level Low Brings Burst of Snow

  1. It caught lots of folks off-guard…but I gotta say…if you were already in place when it rolled it this was one amazing, beautiful and fun storm…we roasted a chicken, were sledding late into the night and had quite the party in Accord!

  2. Snow has stopped here in Woodstock, New York. Wet and heavy snow it is indeed. Shoveling is not fun! Looks like we got from 10 to 12 inches.

    By the way, be easy on the snow plow guys. It is not a job that makes “lots of money” without LOTS of grief! Those guys are up early and working sometimes for 12 hours or more. Their trucks and their plows break down and this means they have to stop in the middle of it all and do repairs. There is a TON of stress. They EARN the money! Also, they have to pay for gas and wear and tear on their vehicles and plows. So ease up already. They do an admirable job and they usually do it without complaining. Give them a break and be happy that there is someone to help you get out of your driveway! And yes, sometimes they do tear up grass or hit something – what do you think? – everything is COVERED UP in snow. They don’t have EVERY inch of your property memorized.

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