Our mid November storm has brought historic snowfall to the region already… and yet, we are eyeing even more snowfall impacting the region for the Friday AM commute!
The widespread 8 to 12 inch snowfall amounts being reported as of midnight Thursday night, are the highest widespread snowfall amounts on record… for a storm occurring on or before November 15th. Sure… it can snow this time of year, but it doesn’t usually snow with such conviction. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour… for 3 hours… surpassing snowfall forecasts of 4 to 8 inches of snow… in just a few hours. That’s what we mean, when we say ‘historic’.
But the upper level low will exit to our southeast on Friday morning, and generate some intense upward motion in the atmosphere. This in turn causes the air to cool and condense… and suddenly we have heavily falling precipitation. This will very likely change the sleet and freezing rain… back to all snow (and a heavy snow at that)… before ending.
Futurecast Radar: 10pm Thursday – 11am Friday
The line of snow that will rotate through the Hudson Valley between 6am and 9am on Friday, will fall at the rate of over 1 inch per hour. Temperatures will be right near freezing…
These temperatures strongly suggest, that even though precipitation may have tapered off overnight… conditions have not improved much at all. The lull in the action will allow road crews to catch up… but snow and ice will not melt, and conditions will be slick already… before an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow arrive…
So travel on Friday morning is certainly not looking favorable. We’ll have to see how it unfolds… but a delay and cancellation filled Friday morning is likely in the cards. The snow burst likely tapers off from west to east Friday morning between 8am and 11am… at which time, temperatures should climb above freezing… and conditions will gradually improve.
We will discuss later on Friday… why the storm exceeded our expectations in terms of snowfall accumulation. For now, let’s focus on keeping people out of harms way for the AM commute. Be safe, Hudson Valley!