The arctic front pushed through Wednesday evening without much fanfare. A few spotty rain showers, otherwise the shifting wind direction was the only real signal. By sunrise on Thanksgiving morning… westerly winds will be steady at 10 to 20mph, with gusts to 30mph at times. This will gradually usher in cold, Canadian air into the Hudson Valley… and you will definitely feel it.
Afternoon highs on Thursday are expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s across the valley, under a mix of clouds and sunshine. Overnight lows each night will be in the mid to upper 20s around the valley. The chill will be with us through Thanksgiving on into Black Friday… and extending into Saturday. A massive upper level trough has settled in over the eastern half of North America. This feature has begun the dramatic weather pattern shift that has received much attention over the past several days. Make sure you plan for the unseasonably cold air, and dress in layers this holiday weekend, as winter is coming early this year.
Say it ain’t Snow… Potential for Winter Storm on Tuesday
We’ve been closely tracking a major weather pattern shift that has been developing over the northern hemisphere over the past few weeks. We’re beginning to see the effects of these changes in the form of an arctic air mass pushing into the northern US, sending much of the eastern half of the country into the freezer with below average temperatures to close out the month of November, and open up December.
Along with the cold air, will inevitably come the threat of winter storms. And right on cue, we have begun to hear the growing buzz on social media the past few days. Our position at Hudson Valley Weather, is that we will sift through the noise of computer model fantasy storms, and only discuss the threats once they become real, inside of 5 to 7 days. Beyond that window of time… forecast accuracy is very low, and computer models can show a storm one day, and have it vanish the next. So sometimes you will see snow maps and rumors on social media, but we have not talked about it, because we don’t perceive it as a real threat. But rest assure, once we believe the threat to be real… we will address it.
And so here we are… Happy Thanksgiving… and lets talk about the ‘potential’ for a winter storm about 6 days from now, on Tuesday December 2nd. It remains early in the game, but as always, the first winter storm threat of the season gets everyone extra excited. We’ve had lots of questions, and we want to address the situation.
A secondary arctic front will pass through Sunday night into Monday, and deliver cold air with an arctic high pressure. Monday night into Tuesday, a low pressure system will move up the east coast. Depending on where that low tracks, and how strong the storm gets, the Hudson Valley could be poised for our first Winter Storm of the season. There are really 3 possibilities at this time.
– Storm tracks far to our south, misses the Hudson Valley (20% chance)
– Storm hugs the coast further north, snow to mix/rain scenario (30% chance)
– Storm slides off Virginia coast, heads NE. Snow in the Hudson Valley (50% chance)
If this were to happen, it could bring more than 3″ of snow to the Hudson Valley, but the details would need to be ironed out in the coming days. Be sure to keep your eyes and ears open in the coming days, as we’ll be tracking this system closely, and will share updates along the way, letting you know if it’s more or less likely to happen. But winter is beginning to make it’s presence known… with the first potential storm of the season. And if our thoughts are correct, this could be the first of several potential storm threats for the Hudson Valley & Northeast in the coming weeks.
Happy Thanksgiving, Hudson Valley!