Heat and Humidity Persist

Another hot and humid day across the region today, highs pushing into the upper 80’s and low 90’s, but the combination of heat and high dew-points will make it feel like the mid 90’s to 100 degrees.  Below is the NAM forecasted high temps and the apparent temps for this afternoon.

As we have seen the last few days, the combination of daytime heating and a frontal boundary to our north will be a trigger for pop up afternoon storms across the region.

Hard to nail down exactly where storms may fire up but we will be monitoring the radar this afternoon and update often on our social pages.  These storms may be slow moving, and may become strong to severe. Be prepared for torrential rainfall, frequent lighting and damaging wind gusts with some of the cells that develop.

As we look ahead to tomorrow the frontal boundary that’s been hung up and responsible for the afternoon thunderstorms will begin to push south towards the region. This will trigger a more organized and widespread line of showers and storms that will eventually cross the region tomorrow evening.

A look at the NAM model for tomorrow afternoon shows this line of heavy rain and storms draped across northern NY. Also some light showers and scattered storms breaking out well ahead of it. As of this mornings data the frontal boundary appears to arrive much later in the day for our region, this is an important detail. If the boundary arrives late and we do get some showers and storms ahead of it, we will see a much more docile frontal passage than our friends to the north. The loss of daytime heating, combined with earlier showers and storms lessening the potential instability could blunt the impacts of a cold front clashing with the heat and humidity of the peak of the afternoon.

A look at the NAM for 11pm shows a very much diminished squall line passing through the region with some heavy rain and scattered storms, when compared to the squall line across northern NY tomorrow at 3pm, you can see the impacts of the loss of diurnal heating and its impacts on fuel for the convection. In short, strong to severe storms are once again possible tomorrow, but it appears our region may dodge any widespread severe weather associated with the front boundary.

With all of that said, a frontal boundary dissecting our current airmass also has the upside!

Above are the dew-points tomorrow afternoon, and daybreak Monday, we can thank this frontal passage for a very much reduced stick factor by Monday morning as a NW flow temporarily takes over. The cool down and humidity relief will be brief, a warm and humid pattern looks to regain control as we move into the start of July.

-Alex

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