The weekend will start out tranquil for the Northeast, making anyone with plans quite pleased. So our focus shifts to the number one weather story in the United States, Hurricane Dorian.
As of late Friday night, Dorian is a strong Category 4 Hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 140mph… and gusts op to 165mph! With favorable conditions for development over the Bahamas, this is looking like an extremely dangerous situation for the eastern coast of Florida, as well as the Bahamas. In the image above, each “M” is the proposed position every 12 hours. So while the storm is only approximately 550 miles east of Florida, this storm is still projected east of the Florida coast by Monday night. This storm is projected to slow to a crawl… allowing for Dorian to maintain much of it’s intensity. More importantly still… areas North and West of the center of circulation, will see areas of rainfall exceeding 10 to 20 inches, resulting in potential flooding, depending on the precise track.
The latest guidance has been trending with a further east track. Dorian will likely slow down considerably, maintaining intensity, and really hammering away at the Bahamas. This is a nasty scenario for the Bahamas, bringing Category 3 or 4 sustained winds (130mph+) to parts of the Bahamas. Anyone in that area, must prepare for a major hurricane impact. The details could change a bit, but the odds that the Bahamas escape hurricane conditions are diminishing rapidly.
Focusing on the US Coastline, the latest trends of Dorian projecting to slow down, could be good news for Florida and the Georgia coastline. A slower Dorian will be a stronger Dorian… but if the western progression slows enough, an upper level trough could influence Dorian enough to steer it just off shore. Up through now… a strong Bermuda high pressure has been steering Dorian west, toward Florida. But as Dorian nears the US, the air patterns over the US will begin to interact with Dorian, and if the upper level winds push out of the northwest as now projected, it could help slow Dorian and steer it just east of Florida.
GFS Projection for Dorian: Next 7 Days
If that happens the entire eastern coast needs to remain vigilant, as Dorian turns northward. The Carolinas and Virginia could be the next target next week. But for now, we should only look about 24 to 72 hours out for Dorian, because a minor change in the position today, could result in big changes downstream. But needless to say, everyone along the east coast will be watching Dorian very closely.