Winter Storm Update # 6
Synopsis- Significant/Major Winter Storm to impact the region Sun AM- Mon AM (Possibly into Mon PM). Storm is now 60 hours out and confidence has continued to increase and models remain in lock step on potential impacts:
– Start Time: 6am – 12pm Sunday
– End Time: 3am – 12pm Monday
– Extreme Cold and Dangerous Wind-Chills
– Dangerous to impossible travel
– Snowfall Rates 1-2”+ per hour
– Low visibility
– Snowfall accumulations 10” to 18″+
– Long duration event 24+ hours
Nerd Alert
Thursday saw the data continue to focus in on the likelihood of a significant (potentially major) winter storm for the Hudson Valley. The structure of the storm continues to change slightly, with it beginning as an overrunning event, but taking on features of a nor’easter Sunday night. This storm has substantial moisture being drawn north from the Gulf, and that will overspread truly arctic air. This combination should produce prolific snowfall accumulations in parts of the northeast.
Winter Storm Watches are being issued across the region for Sunday into Monday
Our First Look forecast is for a general 10 to 18 inches across the entire region, as wave after wave of moisture pushes into the arctic airmass in place across the Hudson Valley. There will be embedded banding of heavier snowfall, which could result in some areas approaching 2 feet of snow.
The potential wildcard is the data suggesting the coastal low takes over and deepens Sunday night, which could extend the enhanced snowfall rates into Monday morning. If that coastal low deepens and gets close enough to the coast, we could see some sleet mixing in near NYC… but that remains to be seen.
The Preliminary Forecast will be issued Friday evening, so be sure to check back for more updates.