This season, we’re going to attempt a slightly new format for winter storms… in an attempt to give you the best information to make decisions with.
– Roughly 72 hours before the storm: “HVW First Look”
– Roughly 48 hours before the storm: “Preliminary Forecast”
– Roughly 24 hours before the storm: “Final Storm Forecast”
3 days before an event, we will issue our “First Look”. This map/forecast will be designed to build the foundation for our storm forecast. We will establish the basic timetable for the storm and a generalized snowfall forecast that outlines roughly what can be expected. It will truly be a “first look” at the storm… and very much subject to change as we get better data closer to the storm. We’ll follow the ‘First Look’ up with our traditional forecast format, featuring the “Preliminary Forecast” and “Final Forecast” roughly 48 and 24 hours prior to the storm respectively. Our goal will be to give you more information, earlier… and fine tune the details as we get closer. This way you have more information, and better information to plan your day to day lives. With that in mind… let’s take our “First Look” at this winter storm…
Summary:
?Winter storm expected: Begins Tue AM ; Ends Tue Night
?Track uncertain, could mix with rain in lower HV
?General 3 to 6 inches of snow possible
An arctic cold front pushes through the Hudson Valley on Sunday, ushering in a fresh intrusion of cold air to the Hudson Valley and Northeast. Monday a low pressure system will begin to develop in the SE, near the Gulf of Mexico, and begin moving northeast, along the remnants of the arctic boundary. That low pressure will push into the cold air, and an area of snow is likely to develop on the north side of this system. On Tuesday, that area of snow is expected to push into the Hudson Valley.
The probability of this storm impacting the Hudson Valley is over 90%. But as always in this timeframe, we still have a lot of unanswered questions around the details of this storm. The exact track of this storm is still uncertain, and that has major implications on the impacts for the Hudson Valley. If the storm tracks too close to the coast, it would pull enough warm air into the Hudson Valley to cause the snow to mix with or change to rain… especially south of I-84. That uncertainty as well as the question of how much moisture will be available for this storm, mean the impacts locally could still vary greatly. Our First thoughts on snow…
?3 to 6 inches of snow possible for majority of the region
?potential for a band of heavier snow, especially in Catskills & north of I-84
?1 to 3 inches of snow expected in Rockland & Westchester counties
It’s early in the season, and the cold air is not as strong, so the further south you go, the more likely that the wet snow could transition to rain. If that occurs, snow amounts would be considerably less. At the same time, if this storm takes a slightly further off shore track (closer to the 70°W, 40°N benchmark), many areas could stay all snow, in which case accumulations could exceed 6″ in some places. Due to the speed & intensity of this system, even with ideal conditions, the highest snow totals we would anticipate are 10″, and that would most likely be in the Catskills.
We’ll continue to monitor and update you with our thoughts and ideas on this system. A Preliminary Forecast will be issued Sunday afternoon. Have a wonderful Saturday night… and please share any questions you might have in the comments. We’ll do our best to address them.