As of Tuesday night, the buzz about a possible nor’easter Saturday into Sunday continues to grow, despite the fact that the likelihood of the storm occurring continues to decrease. The setup is clear, and there are a few factors that will determine whether we get a significant snowstorm, or if we get a few light snow showers.
The energy represented by the “L” over Louisiana will start in the SW US. That energy will eject east, and try to make a connection with a northern branch trough digging across the Midwest. If those pieces of energy phase together early enough, the developing trough will dig deeper and become negatively tilted, causing the low pressure to deepen and intensify, and become a significant nor’easter. However, if the energy doesn’t connect early enough and phase… the low pressure remains weak and slides off the east coast going out to sea, missing the Hudson Valley.
At this point, both GFS and European models have the snowstorm as a longshot. This scenario shown basically has a 4% chance (2 out of 50 ensemble members). We’ll round it up to a 10% chance for now… but that can change. We’re still almost 4 days away, and the key pieces of energy are just beginning to come into focus. The next 24 to 48 hours will be very important. But this is why HVW tries to keep perspective with these events… as they are a drawn-out waiting game as the data comes into better focus. Stay warm, Hudson Valley… More updates to follow.