Independence Day Forecast

A weak cold front will push into the region, triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Clouds associated with this approaching frontal boundary are already visible across the region this evening.
While it doesn’t appear that we will see widespread rainfall or severe weather, some rainfall may be locally heavy. Given the quantity of outdoor activities across the region we will do our best to pinpoint what to expect. It appears there will be two distinct periods of potential rainfall, first round around day break where scattered showers begin to break out across the region. Shower activity will border between scattered and even more isolated as the morning progresses. The activity looks to be light to moderate as there will be limited instability, likely we see some breaks in the clouds and periods of sunshine mid day, this will aid in building some afternoon heating and associated instability. This combination will trigger a second round of showers and heavier downpours between 4-6 PM, the threat for scattered showers and downpours may persist into the evening.
It should be noted that the HRRR model is a bit less aggressive with shower activity when compared to the NAM. In fact the HRRR model keeps the morning much drier and spares the region of shower activity until much later tomorrow night. The HRRR is quite favorable for outdoor activities when compared to the NAM.  Best to prepare for the risk of showers both tomorrow AM and again tomorrow afternoon and evening. Given the discrepancies in the data we will keep some hope alive on an overall drier outcome and keep our eyes peeled on the data overnight and update you all once again tomorrow morning so plans can be further tweaked.

Below is the both the NAM and HRRR, you can see the clear difference in how both models are handling the extent of moisture across the region. Continue to factor your plans around this potential and stay tuned for the latest information tomorrow both here and our socials.

Hope you all have a great Independence Day!

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