Can’t call it a perfect outlook, but we should be able to balance out a decent weekend across the region, but let’s not get ahead ourselves just yet, we still have Friday to contend with.
Thursday Night/Friday AM-
A look at the current radar shows some showers and embedded storms just now beginning to work their way into the western parts of the region. Luckily as we are pretty late into the evening, most of the instability has been lost with day time heating and the convection is tapering down to most just rain with maybe some embedded thunder. What’s interesting to note is the wide spread between the NAM and HRRR on how widespread and persistent this shower activity will be the remainder of the overnight into tomorrow morning.
Let’s take a quick a look:
The two models are at ends in a big way, this is total precipitation between now and 1AM Sat. HRRR has most of the rainfall from the cells we are seeing currently on the 930pm radar which we posted on our FB page, beyond that it has widely scattered precip that tapers off by morning. NAM has more widespread rainfall that lingers well into Fri AM and clearly higher rainfall totals. Given the current state of the radar, I would have to lean towards the NAM’s overall take in the next 12 hours, but we will need to monitor for any trends.
Friday PM/Saturday AM-
Clouds look to linger which will help keep temps a bit cooler, scattered showers continue to be a threat although they appear to become more isolated by overnight Friday into Sat AM. Temps in will hover in the upper 50’s to low 60’s under the influence of mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers.
Saturday PM/Sunday
Main feature for this period will be an approaching cold front, the timing of this front and the amount of clearing skies and associated daytime heating ahead of it will determine how much of a risk of thunderstorms developing. If the atmosphere becomes supportive of convection, these storms may become strong to severe. If the boundary arrives late, or cloud cover is persistent, its passage may only be marked by a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Temps and humidity will also be hitch-pinned to how much sun can punch through on Saturday afternoon. Nevertheless the temps and humidity will go though a major transition Sat and Sunday as this back to back cold front will usher in one of the more noticeable fall air masses yet this year, and one with some staying power. The secondary front pushing through on Sunday, which will represent one of our last warmer than average days as warmer air surges ahead of the boundary. Temps look to push into the low 80’s on Sunday afternoon but changes lurk to the NW, the passage of this secondary front will of course bring another round of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms, although it overall still looks like a decent day.
Monday-
It will feel like the long holiday spanned two seasons! Monday will bring, NW winds, low humidity, wake up temps in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s and highs in the upper 60’s to around 70. It will also start a period of fairly dry weather and temps that will continue below average straight into the weekend. This will very much be a transitional weekend for the region, hope you all enjoy the ride, make the best of the first half and the second half looks great!