Alex and I have a running joke. Basically, any time I post commentary on a potential storm system… as soon as we publish the discussion… the forecast undergoes major changes. On Sunday, I posted a discussion about how social media takes computer model information that is 7 days out… and turns it into hype and fear. I discussed how the hype around Tuesday’s major nor’easter was just that… hype.
But it turns out the hype may have been right… but for the wrong reasons. The 1st storm will miss us to the south and go out to sea… but it’s the 2nd piece of energy… a 2nd storm… that is looking increasingly likely to impact the Hudson Valley.
Rapidly Changing Information
It likely comes as no surprise, that things are developing quickly. Guidance is struggling to determine how much this storm can come up the coast.
There are multiple features at play… such as the strong northern jet we mentioned yesterday. That feature will be working against this system’s northward progression, trying to usher the storm out to sea. The storm will be guided by a deepening, negatively tilted trough along the east coast. The trough will try to tuck the storm in close to the coast, and up the eastern seaboard. Ultimately… it’s a battle between these two weather features… and the result of how these features interact, will determine where the storm tracks.
We’re going to have our hands full all night on Monday, and on into Tuesday. Expect more updates… both here, and on Facebook. We will have a ‘preliminary snowfall forecast’ out tonight… hopefully by 10pm. That’s not a firm deadline, but what we’re going to shoot for. Have a nice afternoon and early evening!