Monday Afternoon Discussion : Nor’easter Looking Likely

Alex and I have a running joke.  Basically, any time I post commentary on a potential storm system… as soon as we publish the discussion… the forecast undergoes major changes.  On Sunday, I posted a discussion about how social media takes computer model information that is 7 days out… and turns it into hype and fear.  I discussed how the hype around Tuesday’s major nor’easter was just that… hype.

But it turns out the hype may have been right… but for the wrong reasons.  The 1st storm will miss us to the south and go out to sea… but it’s the 2nd piece of energy… a 2nd storm… that is looking increasingly likely to impact the Hudson Valley.

Rapidly Changing Information

It likely comes as no surprise, that things are developing quickly.  Guidance is struggling to determine how much this storm can come up the coast.

There are multiple features at play… such as the strong northern jet we mentioned yesterday.  That feature will be working against this system’s northward progression, trying to usher the storm out to sea.  The storm will be guided by a deepening, negatively tilted trough along the east coast.  The trough will try to tuck the storm in close to the coast, and up the eastern seaboard.  Ultimately… it’s a battle between these two weather features… and the result of how these features interact, will determine where the storm tracks.

We’re going to have our hands full all night on Monday, and on into Tuesday.  Expect more updates… both here, and on Facebook.  We will have a ‘preliminary snowfall forecast’ out tonight… hopefully by 10pm.  That’s not a firm deadline, but what we’re going to shoot for.  Have a nice afternoon and early evening!

25 thoughts on “Monday Afternoon Discussion : Nor’easter Looking Likely

  1. Love the commentary with all the gooey guts of what is going on with each storm! We all appreciate that and all your hard forecasting work for us! You are the go-to guys for sure!

  2. Oh this is gonna’ be good -YES!!! ANOTHER Sugar Snow?? Bring it! Top notch WORK all y’all – as always at HVW!!

  3. I have an important work function for Wednesday morning – my retirement party. Could you guys please move the storm to another time?

    • Darn…that IS important. Fingers crossed that it’s not as bad as it sounds tonight. Good luck and enjoy your retirement!

  4. I just told my super who had heard “9 inches” -wait let me check my weather site-BOOM you have nailed it
    on the head again! I will be watching with you. Thank you so much for being the “go to guys” It is so great
    having something to count on!

  5. I started using your website in 2016 and have left since, you have nailed every storm with dead on accuracy. I don’t fall into the hype of other weather forecasts until I see your final call, I love all the little details you put into your discussions. You guys are awesome!

  6. First, let me say that I don’t trust anyone else’s forecasts anymore. You guys are the best!! But I have to share that I read your comment about things changing dramatically right after you post and my husband said “then stop posting that we won’t have snow! You’re jinxing us!” Lol

  7. Thank you for always being open and honest! You guys are the only ones I truly trust. Thank you for all of your efforts to get us the best information!

  8. Thanks for giving us forecasts that we can actually believe are right! Whose awesome, you’re awesome!! 🙂

  9. Thank you guys for your time and dedication to providing extremely accurate forecasts! Being a general contractor I need to keep updated on current weather conditions to be able to schedule any outdoor projects or plan interior work in the event of bad weather. HVW is my go to site!Keep up the great work !

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