Monday Afternoon Discussion : Tue Night Snow Potential

Good afternoon, Hudson Valley. The rain continues to fall around the region, as SW winds have pulled temperatures above freezing, and into the low and mid 40s for most of us… with some sheltered areas having temps pinned in the mid 30s. Our periods of rain will be with us through the evening, before tapering to scattered showers overnight.
Tuesday looks cloudy and mild with temps climbing into the low 50s by noon… with spotty rain showers and patchy drizzle… before the cold air begins to surge back into the Hudson Valley. Temps will tumble though the 40s and into the 30s by Tuesday night. At the same time, we’ll see another wave of precipitation building to our south, heading toward the Hudson Valley Tuesday night. …. (we think you might see where this is going)….
There is the potential for rain to change over to wet snow between 6pm and midnight Tuesday night. Depending on the details, this banding of precipitation could generate moderate to heavy snow for a period of time in the Hudson Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, there are some uncertainties about the position of the frontal boundary, and the timing of the 2nd piece of energy.
If the 2nd piece of atmospheric energy is slower, and the front pushes a bit further east… Tuesday night is cloudy with snow showers, and steady snow possible in the SE corner of the Hudson Valley.
NAM Model Scenario- Radar & Snow
However, if the atmospheric energy is quicker, and the frontal boundary a bit slower… a period of steady, moderate snow is possible across the Hudson Valley. With snow accumulation over 3″ possible in some areas, impacting the Wednesday AM commute.
Canadian Model Scenario – Radar & Snow
No matter how this plays out, we’ll need to be concerned about the potential for a flash freeze, with black ice due to the rapidly falling temperatures. But we will be closely watching the data over the next 24 hours, to see if this boundary will linger over the Hudson Valley, and give us problems Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. We will have additional discussion on this tonight.

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