Monday Discussion : 2018 Ends With Rain… Fittingly

How else do you end what has been an unbelievably wet year for our region? Another rain storm!!

First image is a simulated radar at around midnight, heavy rain and the ball should be falling at the same time, second image is total rainfall from this system which looks to be between 1”-1.5” of rain region wide.

The exception as always will be the terrain enhancement favored location in the Catskills where up to 3” of rain may fall. We will also end December with barely any snowfall across the region, despite our fast start with November’s snow storm. Keep in mind we are only about 10 days in to official winter. We are constantly monitoring the long term guidance, changes in the atmosphere and jet stream in order to determine whether or not winter is evolving towards our winter outlook projections or away from it, so far we have no concerns at this time.

Keep in mind, long range forecasting is about 5% posting model images that are 7-10 days out, and 95% science and upstream atmospheric research, analog comparisons, monitoring sea surface temps, and a plethora of other really nerdy stuff that goes on behind the scenes. We had called for a milder Dec in our long range, we have the bulk of the cold and snow occurring from early/mid Jan through to early March.

We hope everyone has a safe New Years Eve, wet roads and people having a good time isn’t the best combo so be careful! Thank you for all the wonderful support in 2018, every advertisers who makes this possible, every fan the follows us, everyone who’s hit the donate tab on the website, we look forward to another year of keeping you all ahead of the weather and not “dropping the ball” to often.

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