Monday Discussion : Afternoon Rains Return

After a complete washout for Mother’s Day, we’re going to remain locked in this winter like pattern to start the week.  The result will be a less than desirable start to the work week.

Futurecast Radar: 8am Monday – 2am Tuesday

Monday should start out dry, but clouds will lower ahead of a developing coastal storm.  Rain will develop from west to east between roughly 11am and 3pm… first as light showers, then as a soaking rain once again.  The afternoon looks like a total washout, with periods of moderate to even heavy rainfall.  As a nor’easter develops and strengthens, it will actually pull colder air into the Catskills, and wet snow will be possible around 2000 feet.  For the rest of us… it’s a cold rain, with temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s Monday afternoon.

Things will remain unsettled through Tuesday, as the upper level low pressure is slow to exit the eastern US.

Upper Level Jet Stream Pattern (500mb level): Monday – Saturday

It will take almost the entire week for the upper level low pressure system (deep blue colors) to move off shore and be replaced by a warmer ridge (oranges).  The slow progression of the upper level low pressure will keep us unsettled into at least Wednesday.  Then the question, is how much sunshine and warmth we can get, before things more strongly improve for the weekend.

If this were winter, this would be a cold and snowy pattern… but it’s now May, so this is just an annoyance.  The weather pattern has been keeping the cold and stormy weather in the eastern US the past several weeks… instead of out west, where it spent much of February and March.  This is salt in the eye to winter weather lovers, who watch the pattern the craved in February… now unfolding in the month of May.  We’ll keep watching through the week, to see if we can get an improvement before next weekend… but things will be slow to improve.

Have a great start to your week… despite the cold and wet weather.

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