An active weather pattern continues across the eastern half of the country as we move into the middle of February. There are several variables in the pattern that will make for some challenging forecasts in the coming week or two. So if you pull out your phone and look at your favorite weather app in the morning… by mid afternoon, the 7 day forecast could look very different. You’ll want to keep tabs daily on the forecast details if you have plans…
Case in point… the “Tuesday Snowstorm” has become the “Tuesday No-Storm”. Instead of a storm system that intensifies and comes up the coast, we expect a flatter wave that moves in a more east to west track. The northern edge of the snow tries to creep into our area, and we could see some snow showers or flurries south of I-84 Tuesday night, but nothing more than a dusting to an inch appears possible at this time. Just a couple days ago, computer guidance was seeing a significant snowstorm… but in this type of pattern, things can change quickly.
The next threat will come quickly behind the “No-Storm”… with another wave of low pressure pushing toward the Great Lakes from the Midwest. This is another very tricky forecast, as most guidance brings the storm into the Great Lakes, which pulls mild air into the Hudson Valley and Northeast. If that were to happen, we would see a period of snow… followed by a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain, possibly ending as rain Thursday morning.
But this is a complex & difficult pattern to forecast. Some of the latest guidance shows the second image for Thursday morning. The low pressure moving toward the lakes weakens, and a coastal secondary low develops. This keeps the cold Canadian high pressure holding its ground and would give more snow… and less mix/rain. Either way it’s not a major snowstorm… but another in a series of winter weather events that could put down several inches of snow & sleet.
A lot to monitor each day, as behind both of these systems is another storm threat for the weekend. But its too far away to predict whether that will be rain, snow or a combination for the Hudson Valley…