Monday Discussion : Damp and Raw

Monday will see a late fall feel move into the Hudson Valley, as the remnants of Hurricane Delta reach the east coast.  Moisture and low pressure associated with what once was Hurricane Delta, has merged with a trough along the east coast.  The end result is a weak nor’easter along the east coast.

Futurecast Radar : Monday 2am – Tuesday 8am

Latest guidance has seen some details change… while the main theme remains the same.  Monday will be cloudy and cold, with periods of light to moderate rain showers.  Highs will struggle into the low 50s, with a strong ENE wind.  But you can see on the simulated radar, that the low pressure is weak, and rally stalls out over Delaware.  That’s in part to a strong high pressure over SE Canada.  That’s high pressure is going to allow the dry air to hold on for longer over the northeast, and prevent the steadiest rains from moving far north Sunday night and Monday morning.  We’ll still see rain showers… but instead of widespread 1″ to 1.5″ amounts… it seems like 0.5″ will be much more common.

The cold front arrives toward the end of the simulated radar, and that will draw more shower activity into the northeast.  Rain showers are likely through Monday night, with temps holding in the upper 40s and low 50s.  Latest guidance also shows that the rain shower threat could hold on into the mid and late morning on Tuesday… still tapering off by mid day, but the Tuesday morning commute could still feature wet roads.

This is one of those storms where we’re very glad it’s not winter.  The devil is in the details in terms of moisture amounts, so if this was January… it could have been one of those storms where a snow forecast for 6 to 10 inches turned into 3 to 5 inches at the last minute.  When it’s October, and its just rain…. the theme stays the same, even if we only see half of the expected precipitation.  Lets hope that this theme doesn’t extend into the winter.

Stay warm, stay dry… and have a great Monday!

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