The internet keeps no secrets when it comes to the potential for winter storms… as for the last 2 or 3 days a buzz has been building about a snow threat for Thursday. Yes, there is a potential for snow on Thursday… but the current truth is that the odds are not in favor of a snowstorm for the Hudson Valley.
As of Sunday night, the odds for the Hudson valley are roughly…
– 20% chance of nor’easter on Thursday
– 80% chance of storm going out to sea, south of the Hudson Valley
A low pressure system will develop between Tuesday and Wednesday, pushing east along the gulf coast states. It will push eastward into Georgia… and then the big question needs to be answered. Does the storm intensify, but follow ‘Track B’… pushing out to see off the Carolinas… or does the storm intensify and follow ‘Track A’… climbing up the coast, passing inside the “benchmark” and bringing significant snow to the Hudson Valley and much of the Northeast?
The upper air pattern will ultimately answer this question, as the jet stream trough needs to capture this storm and pull it back northward. Almost all of the guidance currently reflects a track closer to ‘Track B’… because the trough is not deep enough or quick enough to pull the low pressure up the east coast. By the time it is “captured” by the trough, the low is well out over the ocean. But it won’t take a major shift in the upper air pattern to pull the storm up the coast like ‘Track A’ suggests. Stay tuned for updates as we get closer… on whether this storm will impact our Thursday weather… or if it will just be a snowstorm for Washington DC and Virginia…