Monday Discussion : Tuesday Trouble

In the midst of a very active wintry weather pattern, Mother Nature has the ability to throw curve balls and sneak up on you.  Tuesday is very likely one of those times.

Timing:
– 1am to 6am : Light to moderate snow develops
– 6am to 12pm : Steadiest snow expected
– 12pm to 4pm : Snow tapers off

Impact:
– Light to moderate snow likely Tuesday morning
– Very cold temperatures = Light fluffy, high ratio snow
– Snow covered and icy roads possible
– School delays/cancellations a concern

Snow Accumulation:
– Entire Hudson Valley : 2 to 6 inches (localized band of up to 8″ possible)

— Discussion —

Without even time to do a storm recap, we’re issuing a preliminary forecast for Tuesday.  As our coastal storm pulls out to sea and deepens, our focus shifts to another weak disturbance pushing eastward.  A wave of energy will ride east between the southeast ridge, and the likely intensify just a bit.

Futurecast Radar : 1am Tuesday – 7pm Tuesday

The band of snow is rather thin, but there is enough lift in the atmosphere over the Hudson Valley to create a period of steady snow.  Guidance is unanimous on the potential for snow to develop over the region Tuesday morning.  As the energy moves off shore, a weak low pressure could emerge, giving a locally heavy band of snow.  The position of that heavy band is uncertain, but we are going to need to monitor the data.  The thin band of precipitation… combined with the potential for “high ratio” snows, due to the cold air… could result in some locally higher snow totals, that could exceed 6 inches in some locations.  Here is the simulation for the HRRR model, which performed excellently 24 hours ahead of Sunday’s storm.

HRRR Potential Snow on Tuesday

Notice how the combination of fluffy powder, combined with a thin band of heavier precipitation… generate a snowfall potential map that looks like this.  3 to 6 inches… locally up to 8 inches.. appear possible by Tuesday night.  There are several pieces of data that reflect almost the exact same solution as the HRRR model.  For that reason, our Final snow forecast that we’ll issue early Monday evening could be slightly higher.

We’ll try to have some discussion updates during the day on Monday, to highlight the newest data, and see if it is consistent with the data we’ve got so far.  This could be a very sneaky little system, that could end up with quite a respectable snow across parts of the region… be sure to keep your eye on this, Monday.

Have a great day!

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