Monday Midday Discussion : Heat, Humidity, & Afternoon T’storms

Another hot summer day with increasing humidity will be the story again today. These conditions along with an approaching backdoor cold front and shortwave trough will result in the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially in the southern half of the Hudson Valley, where current model guidance suggests the most coverage. Nonetheless, the entire Hudson Valley should stay weather aware of a pop-up afternoon storm.

Storms will begin to form in northeast Pennsylvania between 1-3 pm. As storms track ESE, some will likely make their way into the lower Hudson Valley as the afternoon progresses.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the Hudson Valley in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. The main threats being small hail, strong gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to isolated flash flooding in low lying areas.

Below is the Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlook along with a simulated radar for this afternoon.

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