Low clouds and fog are making for a damp & chilly start to our work week. But a south wind will bring some major changes in just a couple of hours. A south wind will clear out the low clouds & fog, and we’ll begin to see clouds mix with sunshine, and temps surge from the 40s and low 50s into the mid and upper 60s… possibly even into the low & mid 70s by mid afternoon.
An approaching frontal boundary will bring the threat for a few pop up showers and T-Storms this afternoon. There’s a roughly 30% chance between 2pm and 6pm of seeing a shower or T-Storm.
Because of the heat surging north and atmospheric shear, we can’t rule out one or two strong T-Storms this afternoon (roughly a 5% to 15% chance… mostly south of I-84). Some strong wind gusts are possible, and we’ll try to share any alerts that come through if a storm or two develop this afternoon.
But by late afternoon and evening, more moisture pushes northeastward… and we should begin to see a widespread rain develop from SW to NE across the valley between 6pm and 10pm. A soaking rain (with embedded thunder) is expected across the region, with the heaviest rains expected in areas further Southeast. Rainfall totals in the upper HV and Catskills could be as low as 0.50 to 0.75″… while totals over the Mid and Lower Hudson Valley could be 1 to 1.5 inches (with some local amounts up to 2″).
Everything should taper off by sunrise on Tuesday… but we’ll have updates tonight as well.