Another Hot Day Ahead

When it’s still in that 80’s at 11pm and 70’s at dawn, usually a pretty good indicator of a hot day ahead.  A look at this mornings hires data certainly supports this. The HRRR showing temps approaching the mid to upper 90’s and apparent temps near or above the century mark once you factor in dew-points.  Stay frosty my friends, drink fluids, take breaks, check on your neighbors, friends, coworkers and pets.

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Heat Wave Watch : Details Determine the Intensity

We continue to watch each day, as we get closer to the arrival of our first heat wave of 2024.  A massive ridge of high pressure over the Northeast US and Canada will develop as the week begins, and strengthen considerably as we move into mid week…

The ridge will allow heat and humidity to surge up the east coast, and bring us highs in the 90s by Tuesday… likely lasting into next weekend.  The details with regard to this heat wave are still a bit uncertain.  Questions like, “Just how hot and humid will it get across the Hudson Valley?”… will depend on the strength and position of the high pressure center.  If the situation unfolds like the European model suggests in the image above… then our “real feel” temperatures Tuesday afternoon could look like like this:

However, if the ridge is a bit weaker and/or centered a little further away from the Hudson Valley… then our ‘real feel’ temperatures Tuesday afternoon could be 5 to 8 degrees cooler.

Both scenarios are very hot… and potentially dangerous.  So we want everyone to take it slow, and follow the advice of the local emergency services.

Obviously we’re hoping for the GFS solution (the cooler solution) to be the correct one.  But both scenarios represent dangerous heat index values that are likely to result in Heat Advisories and possibly Excessive Heat Warnings.  These type of conditions can often catch people off guard… or people will underestimate the danger, and end up needing the EMS to assist them.  Be sure to…

  • Take frequent breaks from strenuous outdoor activities
  • Stay Hydrated… drink water & fluids with electrolytes
  • avoid extended periods in direct sunlight, to avoid heat stroke

We’ll be sure to reiterate this on Monday and Tuesday… but we want people informed, and able to make the right decisions to stay safe and healthy in the extreme heat and humidity.

 

Severe Threat or Heavy Rain?

Data this morning certainly does not paint a slam dunk in terms of severe weather this afternoon. The reason the data has been at odds with one another is linked to how the data is handling showers and cloud cover developing out ahead of the incoming front. Early cloud cover and even scattered precipitation will severely diminish the atmospheres ability to destabilize this afternoon ahead of the incoming front. As we have learned many times before, sunshine is an important element for severe weather to develop. A look at the current conditions this morning, when compared to both hires models, we believe the severe risk is a bit diminished for most of the region.  The exception being our southern most counties where sunshine has a greater chance of making a decent appearance.

Here’s a look at both the HRRR and NAM as of this morning.

As you can see, the NAM still blows up some convection but not until the front reaches the I95 corridor. The HRRR is even less impressed with the potential.  With that said, heavy rain, gusty winds, and even some imbedded thunderstorms are still likely. This is really to address the lowered risk of severe weather this afternoon, as usual it’s always best to prepare for the potential but it does appear to be more isolated at the moment with some potential for scattered strong storms to develop as well. All folks with outdoor plans should continue to be prepared for showers and storms breaking out by noon and persisting into the early evening and overnight as the front moves NW to SE through the region.

The highest risk period for strong to severe storms looks to be between 2-7pm with the later time frame being out southern most zones. We will keep things updated via FB feed which is now available on the website home page and better suited for rapid and short updates. Keep an eye on that sunshine, if we can get a few hours of good daytime heating, the severe threat will increase once again.

 

Continued Unsettled, Cooler Temps

An upper level low meandering to our north will keep things unsettled at times through the weekend. Today will be a good example as to what to expect through the weekend. We aren’t talking washouts, lots of scattered showers, or periods of rain that will be separated by dry weather and even periods of sunshine. Today will start out much the same, with a pretty decent morning into early afternoon, this will be interrupted by a piece of energy spinning around the base of the upper low to our north, it will trigger a period of rain and showers between 1-5pm.  Then very much like yesterday we dry out overnight and pull out another mostly decent Saturday although more showers likely pop up tomorrow afternoon as well, although these may be a bit more scattered in nature when compared to this afternoon. Sunday looks to start out with some morning rain and then improving as the day progresses.  So as stated above, none of the next few days are rain outs, just a lot of precipitation cat and mouse and a lot of happy plants. We should also note a marked increase in air comfort beginning tonight with decreased dew-points which should help lower the stick factor a bit through the weekend. Temps also look a bit cooler with 70’s and 50’s being the normal for most of the region as our pesky low keeps us in a cooler pattern. Below is a glance as what this afternoons radar may look like, and todays high temps which will be the warmest it will get for the remainder of the week. Have a great Friday!

Rain and Scattered Storms Inbound


After a stretch of warm and sunny weather we have some unsettled weather moving towards the region. A look upstream on the radar this evening shows rain and severe weather across parts of PA into Maryland. These storms will begin to lose steam over night as instability wanes after sunset.  Short range modeling shows that this upper energy will track to our south overnight towards day break. This will cause some scattered showers overnight especially across SE parts of the region, followed by a more widespread outbreak of rainfall near and shortly after daybreak. Guidance shows a lot of this precipitation being focused across the mid Hudson valley and points south, with light precipitation as you head further north.Can’t rule out some imbedded thunder with the morning precipitation, especially south.
Rain looks to clear out of the region by mid morning, this is where the forecast will need to be watched closely as another frontal boundary will be approaching the region from the west. If skies remain cloudy after the morning precipitation this will keep the atmosphere stable and the approaching frontal boundary may just trigger some showers and areas of heavy downpours. If we get clearing tomorrow afternoon we could build up enough instability for storms to trigger once again in the early to mid afternoon.
Rainfall during this period looks to be between .20-.40” with up to an inch  where heavy rain develops and is most persistent or areas where storms may develop. As should be expected, temps will also take a break with highs tapering back down into 70’s and low 80’s as we close out the week.  Unfortunately things look to remain a bit unsettled as an upper low will meander to our north and keep a chance of showers persistent through the weekend, no real washouts but a far cry from the wall to wall heat and sunshine of last weekend.
We will keep an eye on that frontal boundary tomorrow afternoon and keep things updated either here or on FB as needed. Don’t forget, our social feed is on our site, so no need to have FB to keep up with the more rapid updates that FB makes possible.

Rain Departs,Drier but Cooler Pattern

A slow moving area of moderate to heavy rain is beginning to depart from west to east across the region. Rain should completely clear the region by 8AM with precipitation lingering the longest across our eastern most zones. We should expect clearing to commence in the wake of the departing precipitation as well.

The good news is that this will see the stage for a beautiful stretch of weather that should carry us into the middle of next week. Sunny skies, dry but cooler weather will prevail. Highs look to stay in the 70’s with some cool nights dropping into the 50’s.

Overall we will continue to be locked into a cooler pattern through the beginning of June. While we will see some days that feature above normal temps, the overall pattern will remain cooler than average with temps some 5-15°

Unsettled Memorial Day – PM Strong to Severe T-Storms

A beautiful weekend leads into an unsettled Memorial Day Monday for the Hudson Valley. Scattered early morning showers, followed by mostly cloudy skies and spotty showers into the afternoon hours… with temps in the low to mid 70s expected.
But through the day on Monday, we’ll be monitoring the potential for a line of strong to severe T-Storms to develop… likely impacting our area between 4pm and 8pm. As of this post, the Hudson Valley is in a ‘marginal risk’ of severe weather, which is a 5 to 15% risk of damaging wind gusts & large hail. We’ll see if that threat rises or falls during the day on Monday. We’ll have more updates during the day on Monday.

Stellar Sunday Followed by Unsettled Memorial Day Monday

The Hudson Valley enjoyed a beautiful Saturday afternoon, and will dodge some scattered showers and T-storms Saturday evening. But Sunday looks to be a repeat of Saturday in many ways across the Hudson Valley and Catskills.
Sunshine mixed with fair weather clouds, along with highs in the low to mid 80s on Sunday. Humidity levels will be a bit elevated, but similar to what we saw on Saturday. A fine day for outdoor activities and gatherings.
 
However any Memorial Day activities will have some unsettled weather to contend with. A storm system pushing east in Canada will drag a frontal boundary across the eastern US and Hudson Valley on Monday. This will spread clouds across the valley early on Monday, and a few scattered rain showers and localized downpours are possible by mid day on Monday.
It may not be a complete ‘washout’… as the futurecast radar image shows bands of showers and embedded T-Storms developing and rotating through the region during the afternoon hours. There are likely to be several bands of showers & T-Storms pushing through the valley… so most of the afternoon does look unsettled. Anyone with outdoor plans may want to factor this in… as you may need to take shelter from the rain showers more than once Monday afternoon and evening.
 
We’ll keep our eyes on these details as we get closer. And share an update on Sunday. Also keep an eye out for our updates on the shower & T-Storm potential for Saturday night. Thanks for all the continued support!!
 
-Bill

Hot Wednesday Across the Hudson Valley…

As we approach the Memorial Day weekend, it’s not terribly unusual to see flashes of summer heat. We’ll get a taste of that today across the Hudson Valley, as high pressure has allowed heat to climb up the east coast. Hazy sunshine will mix with clouds as morning temperatures in the 70s… quickly climb into the 80s around the region.
Afternoon highs are expected in the upper 80s to near 90°! The humidity shouldn’t be too oppressive, which should keep the ‘real feel’ heat index around 90° as well. Make no mistake… it’s going to be HOT… but it shouldn’t be overly oppressive. With that said… this is the first true taste of summer across the region. So if you work outside, be sure to take frequent breaks, and stay hydrated. That first really hot, summer-like day can catch you off guard if you’re not paying attention.
 
But we’ll be tracking a weak cold front approaching the region tonight. That could touch off a few isolated or scattered showers & T-storms around the region. The threat appears to be 20% to 40% in general… so it’s likely that about half of us don’t see anything at all. But the places who do see the scattered showers and T-Storms could see a few that are rather strong. So you’ll want to just keep an eye on the conditions where you are, and maybe monitor the radar as well. The threat appears to begin between 5 and 8pm… and continue overnight, lasting through mid day on Thursday. We’ll try to share radar updates as things begin to develop, so you can see where the showers & storms are… and where they aren’t.
 
Keep cool out there today everyone!

Monday Evening Discussion : Mid Week Heat & T-Storm Threat

The weather will remain on the dry side with no showers and thunderstorms ?? till around late Wednesday night on into all day Thursday.  Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look dry, with rain possible again late Sunday night into Monday. Yes, sadly, rain possible on Memorial Day, but only 30% chance at this time. This will constantly change with future weather updates, so please check back.
The temperatures will be hot Wednesday with feels like temperatures of around 90° by afternoon .. our first real hot weather spell this season. There might not be any Heat Advisories issued by the National Weather Service as the conditions fall below the criteria level to issue one. Please stay hydrated, stay out of the sun .. If working outdoors, apply sunscreen and cover up with a hat, etc.
?? ?? Thursday, there will be showers and thunderstorms ??.
As of the latest weather data, thunderstorms could start around late Wednesday night (pre frontal trough – trough out ahead of a cold front) and then again 11am and lasting till around 8pm Thursday.
These thunderstorms could be severe with strong damaging wind gusts and isolated flooding associated with the scattered severe thunderstorms. Hopefully, no damaging straight line winds .. These storms are due to an approaching cold front running into a very warm and humid air mass which creates instability and shear which is something severe weather needs.
Friday, behind the cold front .. seasonable temperatures and dewpoints return and less hot and humid weather.
So, please be prepared for Wednesday’s heat ? and Thursday’s severe weather ????
-Todd