This developing Nor’easter continues to be a challenging forecast, as we continue to get more and more data. The track and timing of the low pressure will determine where the strongest wind gusts are felt, and where the heaviest rainfall falls. Our latest ideas…
??Saturday Night : Cloudy with scattered showers and drizzle. Low in the low 50s.
??Sunday : Cloudy with scattered showers, and increasing drizzle during the late afternoon. High around 60°.
??Sunday Night : Cloudy with increasing periods of rain showers. Heaviest east of the Hudson River. Windy, with gusts 25 to 40mph. Temps in the upper 40s to low 50s.
??Monday: Breezy with rain showers… becoming scattered and tapering off during the afternoon. High in the mid 50s.
Futurecast Radar loop : Saturday Night – Monday Night
The confidence this storm will develop is strong. The uncertainty revolves around the steering winds for this storm, and the development of the nor’easter, and then the track that it takes. A large high pressure over New England moves off shore, and steers the coastal low pressure up the east coast. The closer this low pressure stays to the coast… or if it tracks inland… the heavier rain and stronger winds we would expect. If this storm tracks further to the east… then the heaviest rains and strongest wind gusts would also remain to the east of the Hudson Valley.
As of Saturday evening… it seems likely that the Hudson Valley sees a period of soaking rain late Sunday night into Monday, before tapering off later on Monday. Rainfall amounts between 0.50″ and 1.50″ appear likely… with the higher totals likely closer to the NY/CT border. Strongest wind gusts are likely to be overnight Sunday, gusting between 25 and 40mph… again, strongest gusts as you move closer to the coast. Minor shifts in the track of this storm could shift the expected impacts… so make sure to keep tabs on the developments as we get closer.