November 4, 2019 : Long Range Outlook

The month of October split the country in half in terms of weather.  The northeast US was pretty close to historical averages, with a warm last week likely pushing temps just a bit above average.  While the western US was well below average, due to a persistent dip in the jet stream over the western US.

If you’ll recall during the month of October, there were record breaking snows in Montana and Idaho and the Dakotas, which makes these frigid temperatures much less surprising.  While here in the Hudson Valley, temperatures were pretty close to average.  We had some chilly starts, but our October was right about what we would expect.  The exception being the final days of October, and especially Halloween… where highs were in the low 70s (roughly 15 degrees above average).

So as we move into November, we’ve seen a drastic and sharp change to our weather pattern.  The 2 coldest mornings of the season so far occurred Friday and Saturday nights… sending temps near or below freezing across the entire region.  So with colder air injected into the valley… we decided to take a look at the upcoming pattern over the first half of November.

This is the current jet stream pattern over North America.  This type of jet stream in the middle of winter would be the harbinger of frigid temperatures… likely temperatures below zero.  This time of year, make no mistake, it’s got some cold air… plenty cold enough to support snow.  Locations centered under the deep blue and purple bulls eye, will be where the coldest air is located.  We’ve placed a purple and black star over the Hudson Valley for point of reference on this map.  As we start November, we’re seeing the cold air surge southward, from northern Canada, and it’s pushing into the northern half of the US.  Based on this trending push… here are the projected temperatures for the first week of November…

You can see we expect chilly conditions in the northeast and Hudson Valley… but nothing “brutally” cold.  Temperatures a couple degrees below average are expected through the first week.  With average high temperatures this time of year in the mid 50s… that means afternoon temps will struggle to climb out of the 40s in the afternoon.

But the truly cold air is building in Canada, and is poised to take aim on us.  Here is the projected jet stream as of Thursday…

An area of DEEP cold air is building in Canada, and pushing SE.  The huge ridge out west will allow for the Canadian cold to bowling ball its way into the eastern US.  At this same time, the SE ridge will be giving way to the bitter cold air.  A storm system is projected to form in the Midwest, and move eastward mid to late week.  Just how fast this cold air pushes south… will determine if the storm can make its way far enough north… to spread snow into the Northeast and Hudson Valley for Thursday or Friday.  We’ll talk more about that in a bit.

But in terms of temperatures… as this arctic air surges south… here are the projected temperatures for the 2nd week of November:

This is the 5 day period from Friday through Tuesday.  The average temperatures over that time… are projected to be 10° to 15° BELOW average!  That’s some wintry stuff.  Doing the math… those are afternoon high temperatures that do not get out of the 30s!  And overnight lows that could dip into the 10s and low 20s!  These conditions would be more typical of late December or early January!   So chop your firewood now…

As we reach mid November, you’ll notice that we don’t anticipate any major warm up coming our way… at least not based on the projected Jet Stream Pattern for mid month…

While the western ridge splits a bit, there is still tremendous blocking expected over Alaska.  That should continue to allow the cold air to push SE from northern Canada, and into the eastern US.  This type of pattern would continue to produce below average temperatures, and even potentials for winter storms to develop.  With regard to chances for snow… it’s certainly possible.  Timing is the key this time of year, and we need a storm to ride along the jet stream at just the right time, to combine with enough cold air.  The models have definitely shown that potential in the past few days…

European Model from Saturday Morning: Thursday Night – Friday

This setup appeared Saturday morning on the European model.  The cold arrives at just the right time, to allow the storm system to move into the Mid Atlantic and spread moisture into the cold air.  If this scenario were to unfold… 6 to 12 inches of snow could be the result in the Hudson Valley.  The timing looked to be Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

However… like we mentioned, TIMING is the key.  Since that run of the computer model… data suggests the cold air will be more aggressive, and faster.  The end result is this…

European Model from Saturday Night: Thursday Night – Friday

The cold pushes south faster, and prevents the storm from moving as far north as the previous guidance suggested.  This would limit any major storm from developing, due to a flatter wave at the upper levels.  Light snow would be possible on the northern edge, but accumulations under 1 inch would be expected.  This scenario is a non-event for the Hudson Valley.  So in 1 run of the European model… we go from major winter storm, to non event.  Welcome to weather forecasting in the winter.

Beyond this Thursday night / Friday event… there will be more chances for snow.  The pattern just favors the potential to a large extent.  This pattern should hold with us for at least the first half of November… before things may begin to moderate.  But we’re going to kick this winter off early… whether it’s just cold temperatures… or if it includes snow.  We’ll have to wait and see.  One thing’s for sure… business is about to pick up at HVW.  We’ll be here to help guide you through all the twists and turns.  We appreciate your continued support, and can’t thank you enough!

14 thoughts on “November 4, 2019 : Long Range Outlook

  1. Hey, no complaints here…just thanks for your terrific updates!

    There’s no holding off whatever Winter will bring and, as we’ve all learned, no amount of complaining, from anyone, will impact the potentially wicked ways of good ol’ Mother Nature!

    Bring it on! And, thank you, HVW!

  2. Looks like I came south at the right time, arriving a week ago. October was the hottest on record in Florida and a cold front pushed through at the start of the weekend lowering temps from the high-80s, mid-90s down to a manageable low-70s. (The same front that took out power to Phoenicia for 19 hours.)

    Keep up the good work and I’ll be driving back up for Thanksgiving. I’ll keep a close eye on the weather. As for the password protection idea, I prefer the honor system, as long as our fellow supporters have honor.

  3. I may not like the update but thank you for the weather report Guess it’s time to say good bye to warm and brass for the cold weather ?

  4. You have to love the weather reporting generally. It appears they love keeping the public on edge with their forecasts like a bunch of experts hanging unpredictable bad weather patterns over our heads. The psychology behind weather reporting is all about the preference of reporting future bad weather over bright and sunny and nothing to be concerned. The weather media knows bad weather predictions gets viewership and like all news media outlets they follow suit. I say if you want to know the weather, look out you window and forget the drama in most cases.

  5. It’s too funny Joseph. You are right. It’s like when they do the winter outlook….. every single year for at least 6 years now theyve predicted below average temps and above average snowfall….. every single year!!!! I hope they don’t spend too much time on them. They could just cut and paste from the year before!????

    • Thanks Ed… just a different take on things with these weather experts. It all comes down to keeping people on edge with predictions so they continue to watch. Sometimes they are right with their models but you notice they always offer several models and tell the public ‘stay tuned and we will keep a close eye as we get closer.’

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