Nowcasting Storm Update 2

11AM NowCasting Storm Update #2
Trends Towards Forecast- Poor ( See below areas of concern)
**Few things to discuss with the morning data that we feel is throwing some red flags

*** Concerns ***

Latest NAM/HRRR Models
1- Red Circle-
Images:  NAM and HRRR models:
Have had a concern since last night on the proximity of the back edge of the precipitation lingering so close to the region. You can see both models imageskeep this edge close, although the HRRR provides more of a buffer. This is concerning because it leave no room for error in terms of the final track of the storm. Further NE and this back edge is into the region.
2-Yellow Circle and Arrow
Images Yellow Arrow from images above, results in snow maps shown below:
As the models trend the storm a bit further NE it is also shifting the best atmospheric lift to the NE. This is a critical component of the forecast as the lift is needed to produce higher snowfall rates and in return cool the lower levels of the atmosphere. By tomorrow the Nor Easter will be taking control of our weather, NE winds will increase around that area of low pressure as noted by the curved arrows.
Directly to our NE is the higher elevations of the Berkshires, looking back at recent history, this is a bad combination for snow production. A few years back a storm was forecasted to impact the entire region, while surrounding areas were impacted heavily, parts of Orange and Ulster were never quite able to switch over to snow. The reason for this was a combination of storm NE winds, and mild surface temps. This combination caused a downslope off the Berkshires to translate SW into these counties.
Part of being a forecaster is learning form those burns and getting ahead of them in the future when the data begins to throw small flags. Notice the decreased snowfall amounts within the zones we described? Notice the simulated radar from both models indicating a small SW to NE sector of rain instead of snow?
With that said, we pride ourselves on accuracy and in forecasting this goes two ways, first to be right but also first to call out concerns with the forecast, not only our but many forecasts in place for the region. We have concerns with the circled area failing to achieve forecasted amounts, we will monitor afternoon data and update this afternoon. The models can flip back and forth from run to run, but this very well not be a blip, but instead a trend. There’s a lot of volatility with the evolution of this storm, this tends to cause an equal amount of havoc in the data.
Last and final image is to communicate that if you live along that red line, the snow will flip back and forth between rain and snow as cold air battles daytime heating and warmth surging north. The previous post times the expected collapse of the rain/snow line throughout the day into the overnight and tomorrow AM.

29 thoughts on “Nowcasting Storm Update 2”

  1. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE put in a visual of maps with the names of the towns. Even though I have tried calling up other maps and attempting to compare side by side, it’s nearly impossible to see what is going on with the maps your provide that have no names of towns/cities. Please include them. And please also state the number of inches – like you usually do, for each area. Without those two things, I personally find your forecast above useless and unreadable.

    • Wow! Talk about unappreciative! If you can’t figure out where you are located within a county on a map with those boundaries clearly marked, maybe you should think about learning that information and making a mental note for the next time…

    • Four of those above images have Total Snow in Inches. Also, you should know where you live based off county lines – you shouldn’t need the town name to know where you live.

    • They do so much to get this information out to us (With frequent updates that no one else is doing! Much more valuable than plugging sales of t-shirts) that it doesn’t seem like much to take a quick look at a map.
      It’s a good chance for anyone who doesn’t know the layout of the area to learn our geography!

    • You want to go to now casting storm update #1 for that map. This update #2 is a update on #1. Read carefully before commenting. ?

    • At the top of the map, you will see colors corresponding to amounts of snow. Zoom in on where you live, and you will be able to figure out how much you should be getting.

    • The inches ARE on the maps, and you should be able to figure out how maps work. This was uncalled for. They are providing a valuable FREE service to help their community. I’m sure you thought this was constructive criticism, but saying someone’s efforts are useless because you don’t want to put in the effort to properly look isn’t constructive, it’s just mean and a little lazy.

      On that note, THANK YOU HVW for providing such useful information to us with explanations and data to back it. It is very appreciated, by everyone except Nicole.

  2. I am afraid that I must agree a bit with Nicole above, even though I fully appreciate the difficulty and granularity of trying to chase an accurate forecast. By all means, give us the fascinating fluid scientific reads, but can they please be capped with a plain conclusion (for example: “in sum, because of the maps above, we are really not sure at this time when and how much snow there will be after all for those folks living in area [x]”
    Also, unless one happens to run a ski resort, most of us who read “We have CONCERNS (uppercase mine) with the circled area FAILING to achieve forecasted amounts”, are more likely to be relieved at the news, rather than be concerned and indignant at the storm for failing to measure up :-))
    Cheers, and thank you much for the hard work!

  3. It is my sincere hope that your discussion of lower snow amounts, warmer air, and less convection.
    Not in the mood for bent trees, downed limbs, and power outages. Or plowing-shoveling.
    Let’s wake up tomorrow and not have too much to talk about!
    Fingers crossed that our folks to the NE of central Ulster county get the snow…I’m cool with a rainy night
    and a couple of slushy inches.

    * Note for Nicole: If you look at each map you see possible accumulation noted, and you should have an idea of where you live. I can pinpoint Accord on all of these maps, Kingston, Woodstock, New Paltz and Poughkeepsie, too.

    • Nope… I don’t see it. I live in Saugerties/Woodstock area. So how exactly do I find it on these maps. I don’t know the entire state of NY and the different shapes of the various counties Obviously I am in Ulster County. So please… do tell… how did you “pinpoint” all those places. I want to know.

  4. The inches are clearly noted and it’s really not hard to see the county outlines if you look for them. I found that now cast very helpful to understand this complex and changing weather. Thanks HVW!

  5. Lots of layering of and playing on words here – just the facts sir please. “Notice this and Notice that” Im sure none of us know what you are eluding to when it seems you are describing a map with no highlights to the area. Im calling it right now – this is a lot of BS – its warm to snow but we can expect rain, maybe some wind, period. Nite Nite!

  6. I legit have no idea what you’re saying because, as Nicole points out, there’s no maps of snow amounts that are easy to figure out based on a standard map with town names, there’s a lot of discussion of things that, if I understood, I wouldn’t be here.

    It sounds like you’re saying that the week of predicting big snow will result in no snow or little snow,

    Don’t apologize for this. You’re not Mother Nature. Weather forecasting is hard, that’s why we come to you. If it snows when you say it will, great. But anyone that thinks you’re responsible for the snow amounts based on computer models from someone else is an idiot.

  7. Nicole, I’d recommend knowing exactly where you are in relation to the intersections of the interstates. I live just a bit south and east of 84 and 87.

  8. For saugerties Woodstock I always used the Connecticut/Mass border as a reference on a map like this

    For a horizontal reference atleast

  9. SWS (sloppy wet snow) has returned to Bulls Head and TSP. Can’t wait until the Pileated Woodpecker perforated trees feel the burden and rural electrification ceases to deliver electrons to our circuit breaker box. Ye olde Jøtul is building up a heat reservoir for when that happens tomorrow 🙂

  10. Sitting here in Fort Montgomery singing the Midnight Rain Blues. 12:14am & we have steady rain (1 mile from the Bear Mountain Bridge).

  11. Tell you what, I’m in Town of Poughkeepsie, it’s 4:30 am, and there is a solid 4 very wet inches already. At this rate, we will get a foot here. I’m sure there will be lots of power outages as well. The rain before the snow has everything water logged and the snow itself is wet, so a bad combination. Thanks for all you do!


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