NowCasting Update #5

NowCasting Storm Update #5

See previous post for discussion on downslope across the region

High Resolution Short Range Models Projected additional snowfall from 9AM through storm ending.

HRRR- Zoomed out and zoomed in on southern and northern region. Downslope visible in all regions south of the Catskills. Snow persists east of river as late as 1AM. Snow shield collapses west of the river between 7-9PM, exception being downslope locations where snow has been inconsistent throughout.

Additional Accumulations-

East of Hudson River-
4”-12” highest amounts northern Dutchess and Columbia Counties and higher elevations.

West of Hudson River-
Lower Elevations- 1”-4”
Downslope Locations- Coating-2”
Higher Elevations/Upslope Locations- 6”-14”

Increasing through afternoon and peaking this evening into the overnight with NW 30-45MPH

Continuing to increase, eastern NY approaching 100k outage

21 thoughts on “NowCasting Update #5”

  1. It is now just after 11am on Tuesday. Barely any snow coming down (more like rain/snow and mostly rain) and about 1/2 inch on the ground. Mostly slushy – VERY slushy. So much for 1 to 2 feet of snow.

  2. Nicole. Consider yourself blessed. I saw your posts yesterday. I know you can’t figure out where “ULSTER” county is on the map, but you happen to be sitting at the top of the area that the “yellow bubble” circle was drawn around yesterday. That is one area that had the biggest question of what this storm would do. And that has been clearly explained throughout all the updates on this site. . . . I live in the lower half of Dutchess County. Right across from ULSTER. We’ve gotten at least 4-5 inches thus far, and it started well after midnight as predicted. And there is more to come as it’s snowing at a very steady pace right now. I also know that farther north in Dutchess County has received a lot more snow than we have thus far. And that is the nature of this weather. (As an example, there was a snowstorm that came through a few weeks ago, and we had a “dusting,” and 20 minutes north in Dutchess County had 5” of snow. How do I know? Because the person who plows our driveway lives up there, and told us so). . . . So it’s a matter of understanding the “shape of your county and your surrounding counties,” (use the solid diagonal black line of the shape of the top of New Jersey State as your locator), and then directly above and bordering on that black line are the New York Counties of “Orange & Rockland,” (named in order left to right), and right above Orange County is ULSTER County, the one in which you live. If you have the capability, widen out the map picture, and you will see the finer white lines outlining the New York counties. . . . You might make it through this storm with very little snow.
    And it would make sense because you are in the area of uncertainty. And it sounds like you’d be delighted if that is the case. For you, I hope so. . . . But don’t forget, even with the most “sophisticated models” to determine weather, you can still have the “unpredictable” happen. Wishing you the “best outcome” in this storm.

  3. Cold Spring along rt9 rather heavy snow again now. I shoveled at 11am (heavy wet snow, maybe 6 inches tho I bet more packed into the weight) and now at 1:30p there is easily 2 inches in my driveway again.

  4. 10″ of snow and accumulating near Bulls Head and TSP. And it’s a dense 10″. I was taking half snowblower width swaths and often the snow would break free, resulting in snowburgs pushed to the side. I was assuming much less snow. Mother Nature is so fickle in what she does out.

    Cheers to the Town of Stanford Highway Dept. They’re doing a great job of clearing this off the town roads. And many thanks to the CHGE crews. I realize it may be days before we get power back, but they’re giving their all.

    Lastly, thanks to Hudson Valley Weather for the great analyses as this complex system barrels through. I’m learning a great deal.

    Time to load the wood stove and head out for Round II!

  5. Does anyone know if the prediction of 6-12 inches in Ulster County is still going to happen im in wawarsing ny area & it’s just rain ?? now this am it was slush , I’m not complaining but every alert & warning said more snow to come , any thoughts or replies on this ?

  6. half a foot of wet snow in Mahopac and still coming down. I had to shake the snow off of some of our evergreens that were bowing over and were afraid they would break. It’s hard to shovel but beautiful to look at!

  7. half a foot of wet snow in Mahopac and still coming down. I had to shake the snow off of some of our evergreens that were bowing over and were afraid they would break.

  8. Richmond, MA, just South of Pittsfield, my deck looks at the NY border at where route 20 crosses over into NY. 20 inches here and counting. I posted earlier from Jiminy Peak. About 20″ inches at my house, and to be the same at Jiminy when I left there this morning. I will try to post when I arrive there to groom Jiminy this evening. Thanks so much to HVW for their thoughts on the forecast. I grew up as a farmer in Berkshire County MA watching Howard Tupper on channel 6 drawing weather maps on a chalk board when I was a kid. I was also in touch with George Bugerelli? when he was the NWS meteorologist at Pittsfield airport when I was a kid.

  9. 100% brown, grey & muted green out there in gardiner north of 44-55. a few wet flakes this morning that disappeared as soon as they hit the ground. even the roadside hunks of last week’s snow are gone.

  10. 20 – 24+ inches in Seager, NW Ulster County Catskills. Heavy blowing and drifting today. The snow itself fairly light and fluffy, relatively easy shoveling.


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