Preliminary Forecast : Sunday 1/16 – Monday 1/17

This weekend’s storm is going to be pretty wild if nothing else.  It’s likely to have a little bit of everything, as it barrels up the east coast Sunday night.  And if the current projections pan out, will probably leave just about nobody happy with the end result.

Timing:
– 7pm to 11pm – Snow develops from south to north
– 11pm to 3am – Snow mixes with sleet & freezing rain
– 3am to 7am – Wintry mix and rain
– 7am to 10am – Mix/Rain tapers off from south to north

Impacts:
– Period of heavy snow likely w/ temps in 20s
– Extended wintry mix possible, very difficult travel
– Very strong easterly winds possible after midnight
– Power outages are a concern depending on track

Snow Accumulation:
– Western Catskills (Zone 1) : 3 to 5 inches
– Eastern & Southern Catskills, Taconics (Zone 2,4,5,6) : 5 to 10 inches
– Mid & Upper Hudson Valley (Zone 3,7,8) : 2 to 5 inches
– Lower Hudson Valley (Zone 9) : 1 to 3 inches

We’re going to have multiple shorter posts that go into more detail on this system, but needless to say, this is one of the more complex storm tracks that we’ve seen in recent memory.  The storm will dive into the deep south, and turn sharply up the coast.  As it tracks northward, the upper level low pressure will be well inland, and quite strong compared to your standard nor’easter.  This will pull the surface low pressure inland… and along with it, will come strong easterly winds.  This strong low level jet will pull a ton of warm air into the mid levels, and that warm air will flood northward Sunday night.

Futurecast Radar: 5pm Sunday to 7am Monday

The likely result is a period of heavy snow, followed by sleet mixing in, as well as freezing rain.  Temperatures even at the surface should climb near freezing rather quickly late Sunday night, and a period of rain is likely from I-84 on south.  All of these conditions will hold snow accumulations down, and based on some of the latest guidance, even our forecast may be too high.

Winds will also be a big concern… depending on how far west this storm tracks.  The further west, the further inland the strong wind gusts will travel.  Wind gusts 30 to 50mph can’t be ruled out across the Hudson Valley, with even stronger gusts possible in the higher elevations.

This is a very complex and potentially damaging storm system, that we will monitor closely.  It would stand to reason, that our Final Forecast (Saturday Night) could feature several changes.  Check back for updates through the next 24 hours.

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