Preliminary Snow Forecast : Monday Night – Tuesday

Another tricky forecast ahead of us, with a coastal storm that will develop into a monster.  The trouble with monsters, is that they are always full of surprises.  And considering our location in relation to the center of the storm… things could get interesting late Monday night and Tuesday.  We’ll explain more in a minute, but lets summarize the situation as it stands now:

Timing:
– After 6pm : Snow showers possible, especially in Catskills
– 12am to 6am : Light snow possible, especially east of Hudson River
– 6am to 12pm : Best chance for steady snow… highest amounts east.
– 12pm to 4pm : Snow or snow showers taper from west to east

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills & Taconics (Zone 1, 2 & 4): 3 to 6 inches
– Majority of Hudson Valley (Zone 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9) Coating to 3 inches

Discussion:

Even as we post this preliminary snowfall forecast, there is computer model chaos taking place behind the scenes.  Whenever you have one of these potent costal storms developing, the guidance really struggles to pinpoint where the low pressure center will develop, and where it will track.

This storm likely deepens into a powerful storm… but the storm is too far off shore to have any real impacts on our area.  It is likely that some light snow showers get thrown well NW of the storm, likely into the Catskills.  But that’s because of uplifting, and higher elevations… otherwise, the real impact from this storm is off shore.

The primary impacts are likely to be periods of light to at times moderate snow.  There could be a pocket of heavier  snow… but in general a light snow event.  The main chance for light snow is from midnight tonight, through noon on Tuesday.  Most accumulations will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches of snow, but as you go up in elevation, 3 to 6 inches can’t be ruled out.  We will need to monitor the situation for accumulations, and see if the storm’s track looks different, or if there is any potential for great snow amounts.

So as of now… this looks like a close call, but a near miss… in terms of being the 3rd major impacting storm in the Hudson Valley over the last 10 days.  But you’ll notice on the graphic above, that there’s a 20% chance the storm tracks further to the west.  After everything we’ve seen in the past 10 days, we just can’t write off the possibility of the storm unexpectedly taking a more western track.  If that should happen… and it’s a very low probability that it will… we would have to drastically increase our snowfall amounts.  Based on everything we have at this moment… that appears quite unlikely.

So we’ll continue to track things through the day Monday, and we’ll try to share any changes… or just let you know that everything appears on track.  Have a great Monday!

15 thoughts on “Preliminary Snow Forecast : Monday Night – Tuesday

  1. Under your posts you always have the day of posting. Would it be possible to also post a time. To me this would help me to see if this is the latest post or if I am looking at a post that is 8 hours old. It may seem petty but as we all now know from following HVW that our weather changes minute to minute.

  2. To those who commented: if you look at the home page, the date and time of the post are always noted at the top of that particular posting by Bill or Alex.

    • If you look at the map – you’ll see that Woodstock sits directly on the Zone line of 2-3. And being that Woodstock sits at a higher elevation and not the valley location, use Zone 2 as your guidance.

  3. I so appreciate your weather forecasting. The percentage chance of this or that is what really helps me focus on my planning. Thank you so very much for forecasting in this manner.

  4. He said “This storm likely deepens into a powerful storm… but the storm is too far off shore to have any real impacts on our area.” So yeah the monster is off shore.

  5. Hello Bill, Great job your doing. I was wondering if you can discuss more about the wind impact also in your posts . The wind has a huge impact on how the snow accumulates from the wind drifts , so please Bill, if you can discuss and try to include in your future posts of how much wind to expect. I do think that would be a huge help for people to better prepare themselves.
    Thanks.

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