An active pattern beginning to develop across the Hudson Valley and Northeast US. The second in a long series of low pressure waves will push into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast Saturday evening. It will likely spread a swath of accumulating snowfall across the entire Hudson Valley between sunset on Saturday and sunrise on Sunday.
Timing:
- 6pm to 9pm Saturday: Snow develops from SW to NE
- 4am to 8am Sunday: Snow tapers off from west to east
Impact:
- Temperatures in the 20s… snow accumulates on all surfaces
- Heaviest snow likely 8pm to 2am, 1″ per hour possible
- Possible mix with sleet near I-287
- Treacherous travel expected Saturday night and Sunday morning
Snow Accumulations:
- Mid and Upper HV & Catskills: 4 to 8 inches
- Lower Hudson Valley: 3 to 6 inches
Discussion:
This low pressure system will ride eastward Saturday night into Sunday, along the boundary between mild air over the SE United States, and cold, arctic air pushing southeastward from Canada. The battleground between those two air masses is where the storm will develop, and it should be just far enough to our south… that we see mostly snow in the Hudson Valley.
Futurecast Radar : 3pm Saturday to 7am Sunday
The storm develops quickly… going from almost nothing Saturday morning, to a decent snow producer by Saturday night. This is probably the biggest challenge with the forecast. It’s hard to tell from the graphic above, but there is very little precipitation with this system until it begins to strengthen Saturday afternoon. Because the storm is developing as it reaches the Hudson Valley… there is some uncertainty regarding how much moisture we get in the Hudson Valley area. Some of the guidance suggests this last minute development limits the amount of moisture that pushes into the Hudson Valley… which would cause snow totals to be less. Our snowfall forecast reflects that concern. The further north and east you go… the more time there is for storm development, and more moisture is likely to be available.
Our preliminary forecast has 4 to 8 inches of snow for Ulster, Dutchess, Columbia & Greene counties, and 3 to 6 inches for the SW portion of the valley. The likelihood is that we will see a lot of 5 and 6 inch totals region wide with this storm, but if the storm doesn’t develop fast enough, we could see more 3 and 4 inch totals… especially the further SW you go. So for now… our preliminary snowfall forecast reflects that possibility of some drier air and late development with the 3 to 6 inch range for the SW half of the region… and 4 to 8 inches further north and east. But on the average… we’re currently thinking most folks will see the middle of those ranges… something like 4 to 6… 4 to 7 inches.
As we get closer, we should get a better handle on the amount of moisture with this storm, and we should be able to narrow down the snowfall forecast a little more. Either way… another winter storm with a moderate snow event is taking aim on the valley. Make sure to prepare appropriately… more updates to come.