Preliminary Storm Forecast : Wednesday Nor’easter

The month of March can be a beast when it comes to winter storms.  The transition from the bitter chill of winter, to the mild breeze of spring, can bring a LOT of instability with it.  We saw an historic storm just 5 days ago, on Friday… and we are now staring down another major winter storm.  The phrase ‘adding insult to injury’ will be rather appropriate for some parts of the Hudson Valley.

– 10pm to 2am : Light snow develops from west to east
– 2am to 10am : Light to moderate snow continues
– 10am to 8pm : Moderate to Heavy snow… up to 1 to 2 inches per hour
– 8pm to 12am : Snow begins to taper off, ending near midnight

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills (Zone 1 & 2) : 7 to 14 inches
– Hudson Valley (All remaining zones) : 8 to 16 inches


Right on the heels of a monster winter storm, that still has parts of the region without power as of this forecast… we’ve got another major winter storm to contend with.  An upper level low pressure system will push southeast on Tuesday, from the upper mid-west, to the Ohio Valley.  That upper level low will help a coastal low pressure system develop in the early morning hours of Wednesday.  That storm will intensify and strengthen… pushing northward, along the east coast.

A frontal boundary out ahead of the upper level low pressure system will spread light snow into the Hudson Valley around midnight Tuesday night.  The snow will be light and even a bit scattered in nature, as the boundary won’t have a lot of moisture with it.  But the true purpose of that boundary will be to serve as the location for the coastal low to develop along shore.  With the upper level low pressure off to the west, it will shift its energy to the coast, and allow for the coastal storm to blossom Wednesday morning.

But it will take some time for that process to occur.  In the meantime, it’s likely that light snow showers will persist over the Hudson Valley during the overnight and early morning hours on Wednesday.  If the snow is light, and somewhat scattered… don’t be fooled… this is not the nor’easter, just some frontal boundary light snow out ahead of it.  As the low pressure continues to strengthen… convective bands of precipitation will set up on the north side of the low, and the low will begin to move northward.

By early afternoon on Wednesday, the front end of the convective snow banding should be making its way into the Hudson Valley.  The areas of banding are indicated by the purple shading on this map… which is indicative of snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour!  Whiteout conditions and thunder-snow are possible in these bands, as they will be like thunderstorms of snow.  Conditions will be treacherous under these bands of snow, and travel will be extremely dangerous if not impossible at times.  Along with the heavy snow, expect wind gusts over 25mph to be possible as the storm begins to wrap up and intensify.  This storm will move slowly off to the northeast, and by the evening commute, it is likely to still be snowing hard in the Hudson Valley…

As the nor’easter begins to push northeastward, and head toward Cape Cod, the western edge of the snow banding is likely to pivot over the Hudson Valley.  In short, that means instead of tapering off, it’s likely that the snow will continue through the evening commute and into the nighttime hours.  Snowfall rates could continue to be over 1 inch per hour at times.

So as you can see, this is a LONG duration event.  We are concerned that there could be power outage issues once again with this storm.  Granted, there are still parts of the area that are without power now… but this new nor’easter could cause new power outages.  While this storm won’t see a ‘fluffy’ snow… it likely won’t be quite as heavy and wet as the Friday storm.  We’re hoping that trees and power lines won’t be coated in snow quite the same in this storm, and the winds will be a bit less intense with this storm.  But with those points of optimism laid out, we are still concerned that power outages will be a problem late on Wednesday.

We’ll continue to have updates through the day on Tuesday, as well as a “Final Storm Forecast” Tuesday evening.  Be sure to check back with us often, for more updates and the latest information on what this storm may bring us.

24 thoughts on “Preliminary Storm Forecast : Wednesday Nor’easter

  1. Thank you for your predictions early in your forecast some of it is very confusing to me so the basics in the beginning help and make it more enjoyable to read your forecast

    • Great work…just one question…you advise that we should check the site for updates throughout the day. Since the 5:57 a.m. report this morning, has there been any update. I just want to make sure I understand how this site works, and that I am not missing the updates (if there has been any.) Thanks so much, we do rely on HV weather!

      While I am at it…is it true that round 3 noreaster is a possibility for Sunday/Monday?

  2. Thank you for all you do and keeping us informed and ahead of the storm ! I would think that this is a high confidence forecast, you usually mention it if it isn’t and I do see anything about wildcards or other variables. I was going to ask about thunder snow and low and behold you answered it for me ! You read my mind ! Let it thump snow ! 8-12+ for me. YES !

  3. Thank you for helping me solidify my plans for tomorrow. As an RN, I am considered someone who mst be at work, whatever Mother Nature brings. I’ll be packing a bag for tomorrow….and lots of food!

  4. We the public can not thank you enough for all of the hard work and detailed information provided. It is extremely
    difficult to predict the weather patterns and checking all of the models and providing the best weather reporting . You go to great length to explain your forecast and it provides excellent preparation senierios to yoour followers.

  5. Flying in from Atlanta in the morning. Hoping that the light to moderate for the 2am-10am for the area is correct. Maybe it won’t effect my flight. So glad my friend sent this to me

  6. You guys are wonderful! Thanks for always giving it your best. The fake news makes it hard to take anything seriously, especially hyped up weather reports along with last minute inaccurate forecasts. Thank you…..

  7. Thanks for the in-depth forecasting it is very helpful
    Looking at the maps I see a blue dotted line can you tell me what that is

  8. You guys are truly AWESOME and now the only weather forecast I even look at ! And I also learn from your observations and explanations……please know how much you are appreciated as someone who lives in a special place that has its own micro-climate ! You keep us all safe….

  9. You guys are excellent at what you do, and you are as accurate as anyone can possibly be when forecasting the outcome of multiple unpredictable variables. Thank you, and keep up the great work!

  10. Thank You for this information…. Prayers for all in the path of this storm… Monster Nature please be gentle…

  11. You always have the most accurate predictions! Thank you for such in-depth information and explanation. Question: what do you predict for Westchester County at 6-7am, what is the possibility of snow sticking to roads at that hour, and what is the worst possible prediction for that time?

  12. Wow! First time to see you, and you actually explain what is happening, or coming. I understand it!
    This actually makes sense!

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