Tuesday’s rain showers have exited the Hudson Valley, and we’re less than 48 hours away from our next storm system. Quite an improvement for an area in the midst of a severe drought. But the next storm system is expected to arrive just in time for the Thanksgiving Day parade, so let’s talk about how this will impact your Thanksgiving plans.
Timing:
– 5am to 8am : Precipitation begins from SW to NE
– 5pm to 10pm : Precipitation tapers off from SW to NE
Impacts:
– Catskills & areas above 1200 feet… wet snow. Slushy and snow covered roads possible. Temperatures in the low 30s likely. Couple inches of wet snow possible.
– Valley areas… cold rain. Rain may mix with wet snow at times, especially in the hill towns. Temperatures 35° to 40° expected. Cold, raw Thanksgiving Day.
The approaching storm system will move NE through the Ohio valley Wednesday night into Thursday. It will spread precipitation out ahead of it, and a few scattered rain or wet snow showers are possible after midnight Thursday… but most of the steady precipitation should develop shortly after sunrise on Thursday, from SW to NE. The higher elevations will see wet snow once again, with temperatures hovering at or just below freezing. But those of us in the Hudson Valley are likely just a degree or two too warm for this storm to bring wet snow. Unlike last week’s storm, this system likely won’t be strong enough to generate its own cold air. We’re still very early in the winter season, and temperatures at the surface are just a couple degrees too warm to support snow. So the precipitation will likely fall from the cloud as snow… and about 1000 to 1500 feet up, that snow will melt into rain as it falls into air temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.
For that reason, the mountains are likely to see another round of wet snow, before the snow has a chance to melt. It’s possible that some of the hill towns and traditionally coldest spots could mix with or even change to wet snow at times, but accumulations below 1000 feet will be unlikely… the air mass is just a bit too warm.
There is still a slight chance (roughly 20% to 30%) that the low pressure will be a little bit stronger, causing the air to be slightly colder… and valley areas north of I-84 could see a period of wet snow. If that happens, a slushy coating to 2″ on unpaved surfaces could be possible. But at this time, this solution is not the likely one.
We’ll be watching this closely over the next 48 hours, and with the holiday being impacted, we’ll try to share updates regularly… especially if things trend slightly colder.