Another in a series of storms is marching across the United States, and will spread precipitation into the Hudson Valley and Northeast Saturday afternoon. Just like the past several storms, this one will track far enough north, to begin as snow… but then change over to a wintry mix… before changing to a plain cold rain on Sunday morning.
Timing:
– 1pm to 4pm : Periods of snow begin from west to east
-8pm to 2am : Snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain from SW to NE
– 2am to 8am : Wintry mix changes to plain rain in valley areas… Icing continues in Catskills
– 8am to 2pm : Period of icing possible in portions of Catskills, rain in the valley
– 2pm to 8pm : Rain (pockets of freezing rain) taper off
Impact:
– Period of light to moderate snow expected on front end of storm
– Snow covered & icy roads possible Saturday evening
– Transition to sleet and freezing rain results in ice accretion on top of snow
– worst icing expected in Catskills (up to 0.50″ possible in isolated spots)
– icy conditions should improve Sunday morning in valley areas
Snow Accumulations:
– Catskills: 3 to 6 inches of snow, followed by potential ice accretion up to 0.50″
– I-84 and points North: 2 to 4 inches of snow, followed by up to 0.20″ ice accretion
– South of I-84: Coating to 2 inches followed by up to 0.10″ ice accretion, then rain
Discussion:
Another storm system will ride eastward, along the boundary between the pressing Canadian trough… and the mild SE ridge. That will bring us a storm riding into the cold air on Saturday afternoon, spreading periods of light to moderate snow into the Hudson Valley. The question once again will be with regard to how much moisture is on the front side of the system. The past 2 systems have been moisture starved due to cold, dry air out in front… and the computer guidance is implying that this could happen once again on Saturday
Futurecast Radar: Saturday 12pm – Sunday 7pm
After a 3 to 6 hour period of snow… everyone will begin to transition to sleet and then freezing rain, from SW to NE through the Hudson Valley. This will put down a glaze of ice on top of the snow that has fallen… very much like the past several storms we’ve experienced. This storm will be longer duration however… so we’ll have to monitor the length of time we experience sleet and freezing rain in the valley.
Most indications are that the valley will see temperatures climbe above 32° before sunrise on Sunday… so the hope is for a transition to a cold rain in the lower elevations by Sunday morning. Still… a period of freezing rain could leave up to 0.10″ or 0.20″ of ice accretion by sunrise Sunday… so please use caution travelling Sunday morning.
The Catskills are a bigger concern for significant icing, because temperatures will be hard pressed to rise above 32° in the traditional colder spots of the Catskills. For that reason, some locations could see over 0.25″ of ice accretion… but it will vary considerably, because of the changeable conditions from one location to another. Something we’ll be watching closely as we head closer to the storm.
Another wintry mix event targeting our area. Check back for more updates shortly…