The first winter storm of the season is poised to take aim on the Hudson Valley for Tuesday. Our forecast confidence continues to grow, as we begin to fine tune some of the details.
Summary:
– Snow Begins: Tue 6am – 10am; Ends 4pm-9pm Tue
– Rain/Snow line likely runs through the Hudson Valley
– Snow Accumulation varies with location
– Catskills & Upper Hudson Valley: 4″ to 8″
– Mid Hudson Valley: 3″ to 6″
– Lower Hudson Valley: 1 to 3″
– Southern Rockland & Westchester: Coating to 1″
Low pressure will develop in the southeast and move NE Monday night into Tuesday. The storm will track along the stalled arctic boundary, and spread precipitation into the Hudson Valley by Tuesday morning. The most difficult part of this forecast is determining the precise track of the low pressure. The exact track will determine where that rain/snow line sets up, and thus the exact impacts different parts of the valley will experience. Temperatures at sunrise Tuesday morning are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s across the region. So, the expectation is that everyone starts out as snow, but a transition to wintry mix / rain will begin to creep up the Hudson River valley Tuesday morning.
At this time, our best guess is that the rain/snow line establishes somewhere in Putnam County to SE Orange county… near or just south of the I-84 corridor. The best chance for a mostly snow event will be from I-84 on north. Snow could fall heavily during the late morning and early afternoon hours… possibly up to 1″ per hour for a period of time. Air temperatures north of Rockland and Westchester counties are expected to remain at or below freezing for the entire event, making roadways likely snow covered and treacherous. Make sure you plan for very slick and icy travel conditions Tuesday mid to late morning, and especially during the afternoon.
The Catskills and upper Hudson Valley are expected to remain all snow, and there a widespread 4 to 8 inches are likely. Slightly further south, along the I-84 corridor and Mid Hudson Valley, a brief period of mixing could hold accumulations down at 3 to 6 inches. The Lower Hudson Valley of Putnam & extreme SE Orange county could stay snow long enough to get 1 to 3 inches before the changeover, and further south it’s likely mostly a cold rain (at times mixing with wet snow) in Rockland and Westchester counties. ?To be clear… this is the most uncertain part of the forecast, and this rain/snow boundary will continue to be fine tuned as we get closer. A minor shift of the storm track by 10 to 20 miles could have significant impacts on final accumulations for those areas.
We will continue to track the development of this system, and share updates as needed. The “Final Snowfall Forecast” will be issued late Monday afternoon. The first winter storm of the season is on the way, its time to make plans accordingly as Tuesday travel will very likely be impacted. Have a great Monday.