Rain and Scattered Storms Inbound


After a stretch of warm and sunny weather we have some unsettled weather moving towards the region. A look upstream on the radar this evening shows rain and severe weather across parts of PA into Maryland. These storms will begin to lose steam over night as instability wanes after sunset.  Short range modeling shows that this upper energy will track to our south overnight towards day break. This will cause some scattered showers overnight especially across SE parts of the region, followed by a more widespread outbreak of rainfall near and shortly after daybreak. Guidance shows a lot of this precipitation being focused across the mid Hudson valley and points south, with light precipitation as you head further north.Can’t rule out some imbedded thunder with the morning precipitation, especially south.
Rain looks to clear out of the region by mid morning, this is where the forecast will need to be watched closely as another frontal boundary will be approaching the region from the west. If skies remain cloudy after the morning precipitation this will keep the atmosphere stable and the approaching frontal boundary may just trigger some showers and areas of heavy downpours. If we get clearing tomorrow afternoon we could build up enough instability for storms to trigger once again in the early to mid afternoon.
Rainfall during this period looks to be between .20-.40” with up to an inch  where heavy rain develops and is most persistent or areas where storms may develop. As should be expected, temps will also take a break with highs tapering back down into 70’s and low 80’s as we close out the week.  Unfortunately things look to remain a bit unsettled as an upper low will meander to our north and keep a chance of showers persistent through the weekend, no real washouts but a far cry from the wall to wall heat and sunshine of last weekend.
We will keep an eye on that frontal boundary tomorrow afternoon and keep things updated either here or on FB as needed. Don’t forget, our social feed is on our site, so no need to have FB to keep up with the more rapid updates that FB makes possible.

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