A cloudy and chilly start to our work week around the Hudson Valley, as the winds have finally subsided. It feels chilly… but then again after our record breaking weekend of Saturday’s 68° and Sunday’s 67°… of course temps in the mid 30s will feel cold. The truth is, statistically, this is the coldest time of the year. Average afternoon highs for mid January are in the mid 30s. That means this past weekend was more than 30 degrees above average, breaking Saturday’s old record of 63° (set in 1975) and Sunday’s old record of 62° (set in 2018). Some incredible stuff, in a January that has been utterly devoid of cold.
But hopefully you winter weather haters enjoyed the past 30 days… because things are about to change….
The next 4 days will continue to be mild…. colder than this weekend, but still mild. Highs each of the next 4 days will be 20 degrees colder than this weekend… but that still puts us 10 degrees above average… with highs in the mid 40s expected.
Thursday, a weak system moves through, and the cold invades behind it on Friday. That sets the stage for Saturday, which could be a rude awakening back to the reality of January.
A storm system will develop in the plains states late week. Unlike recent storms, this storm may be blocked from moving into Canada. With cold air in place… and moisture arriving from the west… snow will likely break out on Saturday. Now, whether we stay all snow, or whether we see a period of mixing or rain… that is what we’ll work on fine tuning over the next few days. Because of the setup, the odds of a complete miss are extremely low… rather, it’s more of a question of the details (timing, accumulation, possible changeover).
So even at 5+ days away, we have moderate confidence that a winter storm is likely for Saturday. We will be tracking it through the week, and will try to share updates as we go. The timing, snow amounts, and chances of a changeover will be things we focus on as we get closer. Have a great start to your work week!