Saturday Discussion : Finally Moderating & Tuesday Snow Recap

The arctic cold will finally begin to exit the region on Saturday, providing relief after several days of bitter cold air.  Just how cold it was where you were, depends on your exact location.  Poughkeepsie only fell to a low of roughly -2° Friday morning… and only around +1° on Thursday morning.  However… in Pine Bush, about 30 miles west… the Friday morning low was -16°… and Thursday morning was -9°!  That would be some near record breaking cold if it occurred in Poughkeepsie.  So it was bitterly cold for certain around the region the last few days.

But as Saturday unfolds, we’ll shift the wind out of the SW and temperatures will steadily climb toward the freezing mark.  By mid afternoon, most of the valley should rise into the mid 30s.  That will feel like 50° for many of us, after the bitter cold of recent days.  The warmth will continue into the next several days… into the early work week.  The January thaw is running a few days late… but will get here just in time for the start of February.

Snowfall Recap – Tuesday Arctic Front

A bit of an unusual setup, as an arctic front saw a low pressure develop along it, and snow broke out across the Hudson Valley.  Some warm air invaded the lower Hudson Valley, changing Westchester and Rockland counties over to rain.  Where this didn’t happen… where the cold held it’s ground… snowfall totals were quite significant.  So lets take a look at NWS snowfall totals, the snow history map, and our final snowfall forecast:

The Catskills performed very well, with widespread 4 to 10 inches… even some localized amounts upward of 12″.  The 4 to 8 inches, locally 10″ that was forecasted… saw some overachievers for sure, but the region overall was well forecasted.  The lower Hudson Valley was projected to see a coating to 3 inches, because of the warm nose of air that would invade from the southeast.  The full extent of which, was uncertain… in fact, the reason zone 3 and 4 were in the 2 to 6 inch range, was because the surge of warm air was expected to cause the snow to mix with rain all the way north of Poughkeepsie.  In reality, it made it up to I-84 east of the Hudson River… and knocked down snow totals to down to a slushy inch or two, on the back end of some rain.

The really challenging portion of the forecast, was the Mid Hudson Valley.  The 2 to 6 inch range ended up seeing widespread 3 to 8 inch totals, even some localized totals near 10″.  The reason for that, is that the cold air really held on west of the Hudson River.  Those areas saw snow pile up, at a colder snow ratio than expected.  So instead of a wet snow accumulating to a heavy and wet 3 inches of snow… it was a fluffy 6 or 7 inches of powder.

In general, the forecast was decent, considering the complex setup of this arctic front.  The timing and impact was portrayed fairly, so that people were generally prepared for the event.  Some of us overachieved, but that is expected in complex storm systems, where surprises will always be found.  Hopefully you were safe, and enjoyed the snow where possible.  Thank you for all the continued support… we really appreciate all the kind words.

6 thoughts on “Saturday Discussion : Finally Moderating & Tuesday Snow Recap

    • Absolutely… The report in Ulster county references Staatsburg because it’s the closest town to their location. Gets confusing when someone reports from the waterfront in Ulster County, and references a location across the river to determine positioning. But that’s what happened in this case.

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